"Manufacturing recession"? Trump and Bessent have almost "given the hint"; the key next step is: which will happen first, a sharp decline in the U.S. stock market, or concessions from Congress and the Federal Reserve?

Nomura's analysis indicates that the USA is experiencing an artificially created recession, with the issue being the time lag between the 'painful' first phase and the market-favorable second phase (massive deregulation, tax cuts, and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts). To regain market confidence in the future, the Trump administration needs to find a way to shorten the timeline and bring forward the 'benefits' of the second phase.

wallstreetcn20:54 ET

Lowering the GDP forecast for the USA and raising the inflation forecast, even the "optimists" at Goldman Sachs are now seeing "stagflation."

Due to concerns over tariff policies, Goldman Sachs has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the USA in 2025 from 2.4% to 1.7%, and raised the 2025 core PCE price index to 3%. It is expected that the average tariff rate in the USA will rise by 10 percentage points this year, five times the level during Trump's first term in office. Platform data shows that the market currently estimates a 40% chance of an official announcement of economic recession in the USA by the end of this year.

wallstreetcn20:27 ET

U.S. government officials warn that the economy may slow down in the short term while Trump emphasizes that this is a transition, not a recession.

Recently, President Trump and his senior officials have repeatedly signaled to the public that the USA economy may experience a slowdown in the short term, but they believe this is merely a "transitional period" of economic adjustment, which will ultimately lead to stronger growth.

Zhitong Finance18:00 ET

Tariffs Will Likely Dent GDP, Accelerate Inflation, Goldman Sachs Says

MT Newswires14:46 ET

Trump's chief economic advisor: The uncertainty regarding tariffs will be resolved in April, and the USA economy will not fall into recession.

① The USA's tariff policy has triggered discussions about economic recession, leading to intensified sell-offs in the stock market, with the NASDAQ's decline expanding to 4%; ② Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, stated that despite current market concerns over economic recession and inflation, there are more reasons to be Bullish on the USA economy and does not believe a recession will become a reality.

cls.cn13:36 ET

Federal Reserve: USA's short-term inflation expectations rose in February, while medium to long-term inflation expectations remained stable, increasing concerns about financial conditions.

According to the latest monthly survey report published by the New York Fed, the median expectation of inflation for the coming year among consumers slightly increased from 3% in January to 3.1% in February, while the inflation expectations for the next three and five years remained at 3%. "New Federal Reserve News Agency" reported that the University of Michigan's survey indicated a significant rise in inflation expectations, but this was not reflected in the New York Fed's consumer survey. Additionally, the survey also showed a marked increase in consumers' financial pessimism, with several survey Indicators related to the labor market showing deterioration.

wallstreetcnMar 10 11:00 ET