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Sentiment On The USD Fluctuates Amid Political Uncertainties
Recent developments in financial markets have significantly impacted the outlook for the USD.
President Biden Dropping Out Unlikely to Materially Shift Markets -- Market Talk
In the near term, President Biden's not seeking re-election and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris is unlikely to shift markets materially, says Piers Bolger, CIO at Infinity Asset Management.
"Rate cut trade" and "Trump trade" led the entire market, small-cap stocks rose strongly and csi commodity equity index fell across the board. | Overseas major asset weekly report
The U.S. stock market continues to witness a "big shift" in the market, as investors accelerate their exit from large technology stocks. The "Trump trade" has raised concerns about inflation and pushed up the yield on U.S. long-term bonds, putting pressure on the dollar, and most commodity prices have fallen.
Williams of the US Federal Reserve: Long-term economic trends in the USA support maintaining low neutral interest rates.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams pointed out that the long-term trend of the neutral interest rate level decreasing before the outbreak of the epidemic still exists.
Is Trump's policy unfavorable to the U.S. dollar? In fact, the weakening of the dollar is imminent.
Analysis believes that one of Trump's most potentially influential policies is promoting exports by devaluing the US dollar. However, even before Trump took office, the US dollar had already been slated to weaken in the coming months and years. This is because there is no sign of relief for the US fiscal deficit, coupled with the imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which will produce inflation that will cause the US dollar to depreciate.
Economists lower US inflation expectations, is the timing of Fed rate cuts becoming more mature?
Economists have lowered their inflation expectations for the first half of 2025 in the USA and expect a slight uptick in unemployment, which they believe will prompt the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates.