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USD/JPY Declines on Soft US Jobs Data, Eyes on Trump
Trump's policies may limit the Federal Reserve's capacity to lower interest rates in 2025.
After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100 basis points, the market generally believes that future policy easing will depend on further evidence of economic weakness in the USA and a reduction in inflationary pressures. Trump's low tax and loose regulatory policies are expected to promote economic growth, while immigration controls and trade tariffs may pose a risk of price increases, meaning the market may have to wait some time to see the next rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Trump's policies will keep the Federal Reserve in a mildly hawkish stance. At the December FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected. However, at the subsequent press conference, the Federal Reserve stated.
Japanese media reports: The Bank of Japan determines that Trump's inauguration has not yet caused a shock and will resume interest rate hikes on Friday.
① Reports on Thursday evening indicated that most of the Bank of Japan's policy board members would approve the interest rate hike proposal on Friday, with representatives from the government also accepting this decision; ② According to informed sources, the trend of rising wages in Japan and the market conditions following the inauguration of President Trump in the USA have led officials to determine that it is now possible to continue advancing the rate hike; ③ The anticipated 25 basis points increase would be the largest rate hike by the Bank of Japan since 2007.
USD Consolidates as Markets Await Tariff News – Scotiabank
US Dollar Flat After Small Recovery Staged on Wednesday
Before Trump's speech and the Bank of Japan's decision, the USD/JPY exchange rate remained stable.
On Thursday (January 23), during the European trading session, USD/JPY rebounded after hitting a low of 156.386, trading at 156.374/86, a decline of 0.09%. The USD/JPY Exchange Rates remained stable within a familiar Range as investors awaited President Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, along with the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision earlier on Friday for further direction. Since President Trump has not made any specific statements regarding tariffs, the dollar has been struggling to show a clear trend. Although he mentioned possible tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, and Europe, the wording was not as decisive.
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