If consumer confidence in the USA is insufficient, an economic recession may be foreseeable.

According to data released by the Conference Board on the 25th, the USA's Consumer Confidence Index for March is at 92.9, a decline for the fourth consecutive month, significantly lower than the expected 94 and the revised previous value of 100.1, reaching the lowest level since early 2021. The expectations index for the next six months has sharply dropped to 65.2, the lowest in the last twelve years, well below the critical threshold of 80. Consumer confidence is declining at the fastest rate in three years, reaching the lowest level since January 2021. The report from the University of Michigan on Friday is likely to continue this trend.

FX678 Finance05:55 ET

Singapore's Manufacturing Output Falls 1.3% YoY In February

Business Today05:17 ET

Trump issued three "gold medals" for interest rate cuts in a week! This article explains why the Federal Reserve seems indifferent.

① After the USA President Trump reiterated on Monday his hope for the Federal Reserve to lower Interest Rates, this marks the third directive for rate cuts to the Federal Reserve in just one week from the "understanding king"; ② Interestingly, whether it is the statements from Federal Reserve officials or the dynamics in the Interest Rates and Options market, people do not seem to see any urgent signals for rate cuts.

cls.cn03:33 ET

Opposing Powell's "transitory inflation theory"? Fed officials: If market inflation expectations also rise, it will be a "major warning signal."

The long-term inflation expectations of American households have risen to the highest level since 1993. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee pointed out that the USA's "Gold Road" has come to an end, entering a period of "dust and haze." The tariff policy promoted by Trump has introduced new variables, and in the face of uncertainty, the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut may take longer than expected.

wallstreetcn02:56 ET

The economic growth in the USA is slowing down, but there are no obvious signs of a recession approaching.

In the past month, the USA economy has undergone a narrative shift. After two years of exceeding expectations, it now appears that the growth of the USA economy will slow down compared to what many on Wall Street had anticipated at the beginning of 2025. However, while the economy is cooling down, it is not collapsing. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in his most recent press conference on March 19, "Economic growth appears to be slowing, consumer spending has decelerated, but the pace remains solid." Last week, the Federal Reserve revised down its GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.7% in its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), after which Powell commented on the economy.

FX678 Finance02:44 ET

Countdown to interest rate cuts has begun? Senior officials of the Federal Reserve release key signals, but warn that the "economic fog" has not cleared.

Austan Goolsbee, the President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, recently revealed a significant prediction to the Financial Times of the United Kingdom: interest rates will be "significantly lowered" in the next 12-18 months. This statement from the 2024 FOMC voter injects strong optimism into the market's long-awaited interest rate cut cycle, but the accompanying warning of "uncertainty" serves as a cold shower, revealing the heavy fog on the road to monetary policy transition. 1. Policy Roadmap: The time window for interest rate cuts has been outlined. Goolsbee clearly provided a framework for the expectation of rate cuts in 12-18 months for the first time, in line with the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the interest rates in the Range of 4.25%-4.50% in March.

FX678 Finance02:24 ET