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10baggerbamm OP : pt2
so when you hear people on TV starting to say it's time to buy Verizon you get a nice 6% dividend versus sitting in the money market account which is going to go down to 2%.. change the channel don't listen to these people and you know what you may choose not to listen to me either and that's fine. you're going to hear these people say you got to buy the housing stocks the vice president said she's going to build all this affordable housing.. ya.. just like all the roads and bridges and all of the hundreds of billions of dollars that were passed for charging stations and seven were built.
the only sector that has not run a lot because it's already moved up from when I started pounding the table about it
is commercial real estate.
all these bobbleheads on TV were saying that we're going to crash we're going to implode. all the backseat drivers came out like cockroaches when you turn the lights off as soon as silicon valley Bank failed because of their own policies you know they create the problem then they pretend they're going to fix it sound familiar.
and for a year and a half all we've heard is there's a trillion dollars of commercial loans done it much higher valuations these properties haven't been marked to Market (true) and when this happens as a result of their need to refinance regional banks are going to be sitting on all these losses. (true).
but yet the bobbleheads love the regional Banks they've been bit up to multi-year highs at this point the sector that has not out of any sector that's left is commercial real estate.
10baggerbamm OP : pt 3
and this is where you have to know what you're buying because you cannot just buy blindly which means don't listen to these idiots on TV when they mention a name of a real estate investment trust or a master limited partnership.
you do not want to own strip malls in the middle of nowhere's USA, you do not want to own commercial office buildings that are low grade not modern office buildings in any City. the old adage location location yes it actually does matter.
there's commercial real estate that's heavily invested in data centers do you think they're going to do well going forward? I do.
Warren Buffett doesn't believe in diversification you can read his quote look it up basically it's a way to justify your mistakes that you really don't know what you're doing so you spread out your risk.
you flip the coin it means when you believe in something if you have the risk tolerance let me qualify it that way you leverage your investment.
DRN is a 3X leverage ETF in commercial real estate.
this investments not for everyone it's important you understand that because when it goes up it's great when a leveraged ETF falls it is pain like you've never experienced in your life.
10baggerbamm OP : pt 4
I've been talking about this one early on you can go back and read my comments. the fact is you'd be up well over 50% if you bought it when I first started talking about it earlier this year. now that interest rates are going to begin coming down it is going to be a multi-year event they're not going to come down this quarter the first quarter next year second quarter it's a gradual decline and it'll probably be about 250 basis points maybe 300 basis points at the end of the day considering we went up 500 basis points.
typically real estate investment trust pay dividends well that's what you hear these idiots on TV starting to talk about oh you got to buy dividends when rates are coming down, no shit Sherlock but if you're buying utilities here you're paying way too much for them because they're at multi-year highs.
so it's important that you look where the puck is going not where it is because you're going to miss it.
and these bobbleheads on TV their parrots their myna birds they just repeat The latest buzz point talking points but nobody really goes out on a limb and says 6 months from today a year from today this is where you need to be and this is why.
by sector everything has rallied off of the September lows except real estate investment trusts.
and there was a material reason why they did not and now there's a reason to own them.
where do I think DRN is going?
I BELIEVE IT'S GOING TO $18 ON THE LOW END I BELIEVE THAT ONCE THESE DUM DUMS ON TV START POUNDING THE TABLE BUY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST BY THESE COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES THAT ARE INVESTED IN THE SECTORS WHERE THERE IS OPPORTUNITIES AND THE BEST OFFICE BUILDINGS AND DATA CENTERS IT WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED AS A BASKET 20% AND IN THIS LEVERAGE ETF THAT MEANS A 60% RETURN.
a
10baggerbamm OP : pt 5
reversion to the mean on this basket of stocks puts it at $18 and then the momentum comes in from everybody that is late to the game and late to the sector and it happens all the time call it what you want bag holders whatever there may be slow decision makers they want to analyze.. the saying is analysis is paralysis.
by the time we reach this group I think this basket will be over $20 and I believe that within a year call it 18 months time frame we will be in the low twenties 22 23-24.
sadly they only have call options to go out to February so I have to keep rolling my options. so if you are savvy enough from an investment standpoint options permit leverage well leverage on a leveraged ETF potentially spells Grand slam home run that's how I look at it especially in a sector that money is flowing into. and the rest for options obviously is your initial investment so you know going in worst cases you lose what you put in.
for those that don't want to get involved with options I believe this can be bought here the downside risk in a market sell off if we repeat a July 5th event or the conflict in Israel I ran escalate significantly and we have a thousand point down day in the Dow Jones and a 400 500 point down day in the NASDAQ. it could fall to 10 and a half from the current price of 12 and change. but I believe if that were to happen money would immediately run right back into it and bid it right back up in short order because the message the trend for lower rates the smart institutional money understands this is the last sector that has not made a move hasn't come close to New highs. so you could put half your money at work right around 12 bucks if there is a cataclysmic event where we have the balance of the yen dollar online coinciding with Middle East conflict you buy more an average down and then just sit and hold and wait and be patient and be rewarded in time.
10baggerbamm OP : pt 6
so here's a chart here's your reversion to the mean just over 20 bucks and you see the upside 30 so that's ultimately where I believe it could go to but that would probably be a year and a half to two years to get there from the current levels of 12 I think that would be the end of the rate cut cycle that would push these stocks to 30 again. there's nothing under 10 years I don't believe there's any other sectors that offer this much upside. there is the potential of risk and what the risk is let me say that we reaccelerate inflation it spikes again and there's some prudent economists that say and they have the data that shows that we will retest high inflation levels again in the near future because of the overall economic condition of the United States. If the Fed is forced to raise rates at any point in time in the future get the hell out of this basket ASAP.
aside from that happening the wind is going to be at your back for the next year and a half to 2 years.
and you need to skate where the puck is going not where it has been.
I'd say 12 to 30 for 2 years if it takes that long is worth the wait
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