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Trump is recklessly swinging the tariff stick, Blackrock CEO: Global concerns about the economy have reached an unprecedented level.
① Since Trump's return to the White House in January, he has announced several tariff measures and will introduce a so-called reciprocal tariff plan on Wednesday to further increase trade barriers; ② Blackrock CEO Larry Fink stated that Trump's trade war has pushed investors' anxiety about the Global economy to its highest point in recent years.
Can the Federal Reserve replicate the interest rate cuts of 2019 this time?
Guan Tao believes that the current USA is in the later stage of high inflation returning to trend values, and the intensity of the Trump 2.0 economic and trade friction has already exceeded that of Trump 1.0, which will increase the stickiness of inflation and even raise the risk of a secondary inflation. The policy space for the Federal Reserve is likely to be limited.
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Is the market currently exaggerating expectations of a recession in the USA?
Morgan Stanley believes that investors' panic over a USA economic recession is likely exaggerated, and the real economic slowdown has yet to fully manifest. There is still significant uncertainty (such as immigration policy) that has not materialized, and investors should focus on hard data, especially non-farm payroll data.
Wall Street's Fear Gauge Shows Worry, Not Panic
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