• J JR OP : buying the whole way down

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• AboveAverageJoe : none of this matters after hours

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• Kevin Matte OP AboveAverageJoe : Could you clarify your answer my friend?

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• PTRGSNY : would you mind giving me advice on AgEagle  (UAVS) ... I'm in up to my wrist at 5.20 per share.....

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• Kevin Matte OP PTRGSNY : ***Technical Analysis & Financial Analysis of UAVS***
  1. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
  a. Long Term (Monthly Chart)
  General Trend: UAVS has been in a pronounced downtrend for several years, with lower highs and lower lows.
  Moving Averages (MA):
  200MA: The price is well below the 200MA, indicating a dominant bearish trend.
  50MA: Also above the current price, confirming long-term selling pressure.
  Key Support and Resistance:
  Support: Around $1.13, corresponding to the historical low reached in March 2025.
  Resistance: Around $2.50, a level previously tested without success.
  ---
  b. Medium Term (Weekly Chart)
  Trend: Continuation of the downtrend with increased volatility.
  Moving Averages:
  50MA: The price remains below, signaling persistent weakness.
  20MA: Recently tested as dynamic resistance but not convincingly broken.
  Trading Volume: Notable increase during price drops, suggesting active distribution.
  ---
  c. Short Term (Daily Chart)
  Immediate Trend: Slight consolidation after a significant drop.
  Moving Averages:
  9MA: The price is fluctuating around this level, indicating market indecision.
  20MA: Acting as immediate resistance.
  Support and Resistance:
  Support: $1.20, a psychological and technical level.
  Resistance: $1.35, matching the 20MA.
  ---
  2. Technical Indicators
  a. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
  Current Value: Around 34.41, close to the oversold zone (<30).
  Interpretation: The stock is nearing oversold levels but not yet in a critical area. A move above 40 would be an early sign of recovery.
  ---
  b. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
  Value: MACD at -0.13 with the signal line above, indicating a bearish momentum.
  Interpretation: No clear reversal signal until the MACD crosses above its signal line.
  ---
  c. Slow Stochastic (SlowKD)
  Value: K% at 20, D% at 25.
  Interpretation: Indicates oversold conditions, but a bullish crossover is needed to confirm a potential rebound.
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  d. OBV (On-Balance Volume)
  Trend: Declining, confirming that volume is following the bearish trend.
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  e. Bollinger Bands
  Observation: Price is near the lower band, suggesting a possible bearish extension or lateral consolidation.
  ---
  3. Pattern and Price Structure Analysis
  Descending Triangles: Formation of descending triangles on the weekly chart, indicating potential trend continuation.
  Double Bottom: No clear pattern at this stage, a confirmed reversal is required.
  Bearish Channels: Well-defined descending channel, with limited technical rebounds within.
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  4. Volume and Liquidity
  Average Volume: Around 534,454 shares traded recently.
  Interpretation: Adequate liquidity for investors, but volume mainly follows bearish moves, suggesting dominant selling pressure.
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  5. Volatility
  Historical Volatility: High, with significant price swings over short periods.
  Implied Volatility: Not provided in the data, but likely high given recent price movements.
  ---
  6. Scenarios and Probabilities
  Bullish Scenario (Short Term)
  Conditions: Confirmed breakout above the $1.35 resistance with increased volume.
  Target Price (TP): $1.50.
  Stop-Loss (SL): $1.15.
  Probability: 30%.
  ---
  1. Support and Resistance Zones
  Immediate Support: Around $1.22, corresponding to the recent low.
  Immediate Resistance: Around $1.36, a level previously tested without success.
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  2. Volume and Money Flow
  Trading volume has shown an upward trend during bearish movements, suggesting dominant selling pressure. Money flow also indicates net capital outflows, reflecting a decline in investor interest.
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  3. Trader Sentiment
  The overall trader sentiment toward UAVS is negative, influenced by weak financial fundamentals and a declining stock performance. Forums and specialized media reflect increased caution, with little enthusiasm for long positions.
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  4. Short Interest, Short Squeeze Potential, and Borrowing Cost
  Short Interest: Approximately 4.96% of total float, representing 548,230 shares as of March 14, 2025.
  Borrowing Cost: The borrow fees for short selling UAVS are relatively low, indicating sufficient availability of shares for short positions.
  Short Squeeze Probability: Low, due to the moderate short interest and absence of positive catalysts likely to trigger a massive short covering.
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  5. Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
  Short-Term (1 to 3 months)
  Bullish Scenario:
  Conditions: A confirmed breakout above the $1.36 resistance level with significantly increased volume.
  Target Price (TP): $1.50
  Stop-Loss (SL): $1.15
  Estimated Probability: 30%
  Bearish Scenario:
  Conditions: Sustained price below $1.22 with high volume.
  Target Price (TP): $1.10
  Stop-Loss (SL): $1.30
  Estimated Probability: 70%
  ---
  Long-Term (6 to 12 months)
  Bullish Scenario:
  Conditions: Improvement in financial fundamentals and positive announcements from management.
  Target Price (TP): $2.00
  Stop-Loss (SL): $1.00
  Estimated Probability: 20%
  Bearish Scenario:
  Conditions: Continued financial losses and lack of positive catalysts.
  Target Price (TP): $0.80
  Stop-Loss (SL): $1.30
  Estimated Probability: 80%

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• Kevin Matte OP PTRGSNY : ***Financial Analysis***
  1. General Context and Current Situation
  AgEagle Aerial Systems (NASDAQ: UAVS) operates in the drone technology sector—a structurally growing market driven by demand for automation, surveillance, precision agriculture, logistics, security, and defense. However, the company has experienced a major deterioration in its financial position and a strategic misalignment in recent years.
  ---
  2. Revenue and Growth (Income Statement)
  Based on the provided data:
  Annual Revenues: After impressive growth between 2020 and 2022 (+333% in 2020, +659% in 2021, +95% in 2022), revenue dropped -28% in 2023, falling from $19.09M to $13.74M.
  Quarterly Revenues: Q1 2024 shows a temporary rebound at $3.89M, but this momentum collapses by Q2 and Q3 2024, falling to $3.28M (YoY -5.71%).
  Sectoral Analysis:
  This volatility highlights UAVS’s difficulty in sustaining long-term organic growth despite strong post-COVID traction (fueled by agricultural and autonomous logistics needs).
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  3. Margins (Gross, Operating, Net)
  Net Margin: Extremely degraded, reaching -308.71% in 2023, a slight improvement vs 2022 (-305.08%) but still catastrophic. Quarterly margins range from -838% in Q4 2023 to -105% in Q3 2024.
  Operating Margin: Also negative, at -$17.39M in 2023, with YoY improvement (+22.99%), but still far from operational profitability.
  Gross Margin: Not shown in the screenshots, but the severely negative operating and net margins suggest poorly managed fixed and operational costs, potentially pointing to an unviable business model.
  ---
  4. Profitability: ROE, ROA, ROIC
  All profitability metrics are negative:
  ROE (Return on Equity): Not explicitly provided, but the equity ratio dropped from 89% (2019) to 28% (Q3 2024), suggesting a rapid erosion of shareholder equity.
  ROA (Return on Assets): Likely negative, given the net loss of -$42M versus $25M in assets.
  ROIC (Return on Invested Capital): Impossible to turn positive in this environment; capital invested continues to generate recurring losses.
  ---
  5. Cash Flows
  Free Cash Flow (FCF)
  Annual: Negative since 2019, hitting a low of -$21.5M in 2022, and “improving” to -$11.73M in 2023.
  Quarterly: Slight improvement, with reduced losses to -$1.09M in Q3 2024, a YoY improvement of +50%.
  Cash Flow from Operations (CFO)
  Annual: Still negative, -$10.96M in 2023, but improving (+44% YoY).
  Interpretation: The company is structurally burning cash, though signs of effort to slow the bleeding have emerged since 2023.

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