CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index Stock Discussion

June CPI turned negative month-on-month for the first time in four years, and core year-on-year growth hit a more than three-year low. Expectations for a rate cut this year have risen sharply, with the likelihood of a September rate cut climbing to 80%, and the probability of a July rate cut reemerging.

U.S. Jun. CPI (MoM): -0.1%, [Est. 0.1%, Prev. 0.0%]
U.S. Jun. CPI (YoY): 3.0%, [Est. 3.1%, Prev. 3.3%]
U.S. Jun. Core CPI (MoM): 0.1%, [Est. 0.2%, Prev.0.2%...

We have a good ways to go on shrinking the balance sheet.
The neutral interest rate must have moved up, at least in the short term.
We see current Fed policy as restrictive.
The Fed has made quite a lot of progress on inflation.
The economy is growing around 2%, and with inflation and jobs, these are good numbers.
The Fed wants to be more confident about inflation.
I do have some confidence in inflation coming down, but I am not prepared to say I am sufficiently ...

Inflation and the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first cut could be key stories to the market on Thursday, with the June consumer price index report due out before the bell. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are looking for the CPI to be up 0.1% month over month, and 3.1% year over year.
That would still be above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, but would be a slowdown from May. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday on Capitol...

Recent data shows moderate further progress in reducing inflation; given the past two years, high inflation is not the only economic risk.
Premature or excessive rate cuts could hinder or reverse the decline in inflation, while acting too late or too little could overly weaken the economy and employment.
The labor market is strong but not overheated; recent data shows significant cooling.
T...

“If I were sitting in my former seat, I’d be getting ready to cut the rates in September,” Kaplan said on Monday. “I wouldn’t make any commitments between now and then, but I think they’re going to position to cut rates in September, and they’ll take it then one meeting at a time.”
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, describes the market as being in a “slow-motion melt-up.” Investors seem to believe that ...

Analysts warn that the third quarter tends to be a seasonally volatile period, especially when signs of overheating appear. Morgan Stanley suggests there is a high probability of a 10% correction between now and the election. Goldman Sachs believes that disappointing corporate earnings could lead to a painful two weeks starting in August.
"Smart money" is rapidly changing direction, with hedge funds selling tech stocks at ...