USD: Moderately Hawkish Remarks by Powell – ING
US Stocks Have Already Returned a Third of Post-election Gains
With the election risks dissipated, investors are frantically scooping up risk assets! Is there now no obstacle to the rise of the U.S. stock market?
Options investors are flocking into the US stock market to bet heavily on higher-risk stocks, which has supported the rising trend of US stocks against the backdrop of fading concerns over the election and the expectation that the Republicans will securely hold power in Congress next year.
Late night broadcasting! Powell: The economy is strong, the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut interest rates, there is time to understand the impact of Trump's policies.
Powell stated that labor market indicators are returning to more normal levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's full employment target; inflation will continue to decline towards the target of 2%, although there may be occasional fluctuations; the interest rate path is not preset and depends on data and economic outlook. If the data tells us to slow down rate cuts, slowing down is the wise choice; Congress generally believes that the Fed's independence is very important, concluding prematurely on the policies of the Trump administration. The Fed will act cautiously before policy is more certain; the impact of AI may be later and greater than we expect.
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The wealth gap between Europe and the United States has widened to its largest in 30 years, Trump's election victory has boosted investment in American assets.
The lag of the european stock market compared to the usa market has reached its highest level in nearly 30 years, and Trump's election has further intensified the global preference for usa assets, which may exacerbate this trend.
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The October CPI data released by the US Department of Labor shows a year-on-year CPI growth rate of 2.6%, and a core CPI year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%, both in line with market expectations.
Is it stable? The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates next month has reached 80%.
① Last night, the completely market-expected usa October CPI data did not cause much of a stir in the market; ② However, the data performance still boosted market confidence in the Fed's interest rate cut next month, and stimulated a rebound in short-term US government bonds.