Boeing Put Options Jump as Stock Slides After Jeju Air Crash in South Korea
GTJA: Will US bonds and US stocks once again show a "teeter-totter" effect?
Compared to last April, the market is clearly more optimistic about the USA economy and the US stock market, which in some way also implies a more pessimistic view on the Bonds market.
US Stock Futures Fall in Cautious Start to 2025
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S&P 500 Ends 2024 23% Higher, Experts See Double-Digit Growth For 2025
晴瓦林 : This thing will be back to 4880 soon
ひな☆彡 SOXL(Bull) OP 晴瓦林 : Ok that’s pessimistic… I will be losing lots of money if that’s the case….
晴瓦林 ひな☆彡 SOXL(Bull) OP : Here's why I think we're in a recession. Every time Sahm Rule gets triggered, the US will enter a recession after 3 months. But there was a false alarm recently in 2024 September and another in 1959. Even in 1959, the US still entered a recession after 6 months after a false alarm. This model is way more accurate than the treasury yield curve in terms of minimum severity. The treasury yield curve predicted the US economy would enter a recession in 2022, but it wasn't severe enough to be considered a recession. Wiki considered it a market decline rather than a recession. I thought they didn't consider it a recession because the unemployment rate hadn't increased. So, 2022 is just a bear market. But the one in 2025 is a real recession, the real one. Now, I'm going to wait for one of the earnings reports from the magnificent 7 or just Nvidia to pop the S&P 500 bubble.
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator