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Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: Sprouts Farmers (SFM) and Walmart (WMT)
Express News | Walmart Inc. : Barclays Raises Target Price to $108 From $98
This week's financial outlook: The Federal Reserve's minutes lead the way, and the corporate Earnings Reports season continues to heat up.
The corporate Earnings Reports season is in full swing, and the quarterly reports from Alibaba and Walmart are receiving a lot of attention.
Earnings Watch: Can Anything Stop Walmart's Rally?
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ZnWC : Alibaba's earnings for Q4 were expected to be:
Revenue: $39.15 billion
Earnings per share (EPS): $2.75
Risks include Chinese economy performance and competitions from rivals such as PDD and JD.com.
Walmart's earnings for Q4 were expected to be:
Revenue$173.39 billion
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.80
The company announced a $2.3 billion deal to buy smart-television maker Vizio on Tuesday. Risks include US inflation rate and competitions from rivals like Costco and Amazon.
Bottom line:
I don't see any fundamental changes (of the 2 companies) for the long term. But for the shorter term, the possible escalation of China-US trade war may affect how the stock perform. How the company manages cost and improves productivity is also crucial.
Cui Nyonya Kueh : tomorrow $iQIYI (IQ.US)$
Skyrye7 : Several key factors will impact the earnings prospects for Alibaba and Walmart:
Alibaba (BABA)
China’s Economic Recovery
Alibaba’s earnings depend on China’s consumer demand, economic growth, and regulatory environment. A slowdown in economic recovery could hurt revenue growth.
Government policies, including potential stimulus packages, could influence consumer spending and online retail activity.
E-commerce Competition
Alibaba faces intense competition from JD.com, Pinduoduo (PDD), and Douyin (TikTok’s China version).
Discounts and aggressive pricing strategies from competitors could pressure Alibaba’s margins.
Cloud Computing Growth
Alibaba Cloud is a key revenue driver. Slower-than-expected cloud growth, due to enterprise spending cuts or competition from Tencent Cloud and Huawei, could impact earnings.
Regulatory Risks & U.S. Sanctions
The Chinese government has softened its stance on tech companies, but lingering regulatory risks remain.
Potential U.S. restrictions on Chinese tech firms could affect Alibaba’s stock performance.
Share Buybacks & Foreign Investment
Alibaba’s share buyback program could support stock prices and investor sentiment.
Increased investments from foreign funds, like David Tepper’s Appaloosa LP, signal confidence in its long-term growth.
Walmart (WMT)
U.S. Consumer Spending & Inflation
Walmart’s earnings rely on strong consumer spending. Persistent inflation, high interest rates, or economic slowdown could impact sales.
If consumers cut discretionary spending (electronics, apparel), Walmart’s general merchandise sales may decline.
Grocery & E-commerce Strength
Walmart’s dominance in groceries, which make up over half of its revenue, provides stability. However, price wars with rivals like Kroger and Amazon could affect margins.
The company’s e-commerce growth is a positive driver, but competition from Amazon remains a challenge.
Walmart+ and Digital Ads
Walmart’s subscription service, Walmart+, and its growing digital advertising business (like Amazon’s ad model) are new revenue sources.
If these divisions grow faster than expected, they could significantly boost earnings.
Tariffs & Supply Chain Costs
Potential new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports could increase costs, affecting pricing and profit margins.
Any disruptions in global supply chains (e.g., due to geopolitical tensions or shipping delays) could impact inventory and costs.
Wage & Labor Costs
Rising labor costs and investments in automation will influence Walmart’s profitability.
If wage inflation continues, Walmart may pass costs to consumers or see margin compression.
Conclusion
Alibaba’s earnings will be shaped by China’s economy, competition, cloud growth, and regulatory environment.
Walmart’s earnings depend on U.S. consumer trends, grocery sales, e-commerce, and cost management.
Kohson : Alibaba will have better results since their government had a program trade old buy new. This will eventually boost their revenue
Lucas Cheah : $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ and $Walmart (WMT.US)$ Earnings Prospects
1. $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ Earnings Prospects
a) Key Revenue Drivers & Growth Catalysts
E-commerce Recovery & Consumer Spending in China
• Alibaba’s Q4 2024 revenue grew +7% YoY, driven by a rebound in Chinese consumer spending.
• Singles’ Day 2024 sales exceeded expectations, with higher premium brand sales contributing to revenue growth.
• Impact on Earnings: Alibaba’s e-commerce platforms (Tmall, Taobao) continue to dominate, benefiting from China’s expansionary monetary policies.
Cloud Computing & AI Expansion
• Alibaba Cloud’s revenue grew 12% YoY in Q4 2024, with AI-driven services contributing 30% of sales.
• Strategic AI partnerships (e.g., collaboration with Apple in China) will enhance Alibaba’s cloud dominance.
• Impact on Earnings: AI and cloud computing remain high-margin businesses, boosting long-term profitability.
International Growth & Expansion of AliExpress
• Alibaba’s AliExpress & Lazada (SEA markets) saw 18% YoY growth, supported by cross-border e-commerce expansion.
• Impact on Earnings: International growth reduces reliance on China and diversifies revenue sources.
b) Challenges & Risks
• Regulatory Uncertainty: China’s strict e-commerce regulations could impact profitability.
• Competition from JD.com & PDD Holdings: Price wars with competitors may compress margins.
2. $Walmart (WMT.US)$ Earnings Prospects
a) Key Revenue Drivers & Growth Catalysts
E-commerce & Digital Advertising Growth
• Walmart’s Q4 FY24 e-commerce sales grew 27% YoY, supported by online grocery & delivery services.
• Ad revenue increased by 28%, leveraging Walmart Connect (digital ads platform).
• Impact on Earnings: Walmart’s ad revenue is high-margin, contributing strong profit growth.
Cost Efficiency & Supply Chain Optimization
• Walmart is expanding automation in warehouses, cutting $500M in costs annually.
• Grocery margins are improving, with higher sales from premium brands.
• Impact on Earnings: Higher margins & efficiency gains will drive EPS growth.
Expansion in Emerging Markets & AI Investments
• Walmart is expanding its AI-driven retail, improving inventory management & customer engagement.
• India’s Flipkart (owned by Walmart) grew 35% YoY, driving international revenue.
• Impact on Earnings: International expansion will diversify growth beyond the U.S..
b) Challenges & Risks
• Inflation & Consumer Spending Weakness may impact discretionary purchases.
• Intense Competition from Amazon in e-commerce could limit market share expansion.
Conclusion:
• Alibaba’s AI & cloud expansion make it a high-growth stock for investors looking for long-term upside.
• Walmart’s e-commerce & cost efficiency provide steady earnings & dividends, making it a defensive growth stock.