SPDR S&P Biotech ETF Stock Discussion

Jinta Hong, CFA
Background
As we enter the second half of 2024, the global financial landscape remains dynamic, influenced by international relations and economic policies. While major markets like the US, Japan, India, and parts of Europe have seen significant growth, Australia has faced challenges such as inflation and weak Chinese economic performance. The $S&P/ASX 200(.XJO.AU)$ index reached a historic peak in April ...

$Ginkgo Bioworks(DNA.US)$ smth happened to this... 0.1 soon
It does not follow the XBI and Russell 2000 up trend for this period of time. Meaning market drops, it drops. Market ups, it still drop. Gonna cut off from my side

$Merck & Co(MRK.US)$ on the prowl for acquisitions up to $15 billion.
$Merck & Co(MRK.US)$ already has an active partnership with $Janux Therapeutics(JANX.US)$ for two TRACtr targets, and CEO Davis has evinced a preference for acquisition of $SPDR S&P Biotech ETF(XBI.US)$ in which $Merck & Co(MRK.US)$ already has a seat at the table.
$Merck & Co(MRK.US)$ acquisition of $HARP earlier this year (for a song) shows their interest in the T Cell engag...

Background and Recent Performance
$Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY.US)$ is a global biopharmaceutical company known for its innovative treatments in oncology, immunology, and cardiovascular diseases. Over the past year, BMY has faced some challenges, with its stock price nearing its 52-week low. As of June 20, 2024, the stock is trading at $40.795, which is close to its 52-week low of around $40.00.
$Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY.US)$
Despite recent performance s...

Short Interest of Life Sciences Companies at a High Point.
Interesting list of name for the incoming CPI..
$Novavax(NVAX.US)$ $SPDR S&P Biotech ETF(XBI.US)$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$

No megadeals in biotech so far this yr, but on track for record amount >$1 bil deals,
2 biggest deals this yr:
$Vertex Pharmaceuticals(VRTX.US)$ paid $4.9 bil for $Alpine Immune(ALPN.US)$
$Gilead Sciences(GILD.US)$ paid $4.3 bil for $CBAY
Bolt-on deals likely to continue to be the dominant story in 2024, which means we could also see more of this trend...
Last yr 84% of M&A deal dollars were for Biotechs w/ Phase 3 & Marketed assets,
In the first four months of 2024 56% of M&A deal dollar went towards P...

The FDA PDUFA Calendar is a chronological calendar of PDUFA target dates as well as Advisory meetings (ADCOMM). PDUFA target dates are dates by which the FDA aims to deliver their decision regarding an NDA or BLA filing. These decisions can however come before the PDUFA target date.
$Pfizer(PFE.US)$ $Dynavax Technologies(DVAX.US)$ $Sandstorm Gold(SAND.US)$ $Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY.US)$ $SPDR S&P Biotech ETF(XBI.US)$

$SPDR S&P Biotech ETF(XBI.US)$
Assumptions: Overall market is stable and not turning into bear market; US economy no recession;  Better to start rate cut in 2024.
$Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$

$SPDR S&P Biotech ETF(XBI.US)$ $iShares Biotechnology ETF(IBB.US)$
M&A in Q1 alone totaled 12 deals for $19.2 bil which is close to the 10 deals for $21.9 bil in all the 1H of 2023...
But one big caveat of this chart, it doesn't include $Pfizer(PFE.US)$ 's $43 bil deal for $SGEN announced in Mar 2023 but didn't close until Dec bc of an FTC challenge,
The biggest biotech M&A deal so far this yr was $Gilead Sciences(GILD.US)$ 's $4.3 b...

$SPDR S&P Biotech ETF(XBI.US)$ $iShares Biotechnology ETF(IBB.US)$
Observations from $VINC (-60% AH):
1- When companies tout "strong safety profile", often means efficacy is a big fat zero
2- Phrases like "dose dependent clinical activity" set the bar low
3- "Promising" doesn't necessarily refer to SP
Stay skeptical, my friends.