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China Stimulus Rally Is Already Fading. Why Alibaba, JD.com Stocks Are Falling.
[Brokerage Focus] Guoyuan International expects domestic Autos demand to remain stable next year, with independent brands' market share continuing to rise.
Jinwu Financial News | Guoyuan International has released the investment strategy for the Autos Industry in 2025. In terms of complete vehicles, it is expected that domestic Autos demand will remain stable overall next year, with independent brands continuing to gain market share. However, the intensity of market competition is expected to remain fierce, with price pressures continuing to impact the entire supply chain system. The competitive advantage of China's Autos Industry is generally strengthening, and if there are no significant changes in the international trade environment, the trend of export growth is likely to continue. The bank recommends industry leader BYD Company Limited (01211) (already covered): the company has a vertically integrated advantage in electric vehicle development and is vigorously advancing.
Aim for 30 million vehicles for the whole year, with RBOB Gasoline vehicles experiencing a "four consecutive months increase". The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers calls for early implementation of consumer promotion policies next year.
1. The domestic sales of traditional fuel Passenger Vehicles reached 1.21 million units, a decrease of 0.105 million units compared to the same period last year, with a month-on-month growth of 16.2% and a year-on-year decline of 8%. 2. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Industry Association, urged that relevant policies to promote Consumer spending on Autos continue next year and be implemented as soon as possible.
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The performance of auto stocks is divergent. Nio (09866) fell by 3.16%. Institutions say that after December, the auto market will enter the consumer off-season, and caution is needed regarding fluctuations in the auto sector stock prices.
Jinwu Financial News | The performance of automotive stocks is mixed. As of the time of publication, NIO (09866) is down 3.16%, Evergrande Auto (00708) is down 2.08%, Xpeng Motors (09868) is down 1.17%, Great Wall Motor (02333) and Li Auto (02015) are also down. On the other hand, Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238) is up 3.11%, Peking Automotive (01958) is up 1.28%, LEAPMOTOR (09863) is up 1.38%, and Geely Automobile (00175) is up 1.02%. In terms of news, BOCOM INTL released the monthly report for the automotive Industry, forecasting passenger vehicle sales for November 2024.
BOCOM INTL: In November, the penetration rate of New energy Fund in the mainland reached 52.3%. Bullish on December's performance.
BOCOM INTL suggests focusing on quality symbols in the Passenger Vehicle Sector such as BYD Company Limited (01211), NIO Inc. -SW (09866), and XPeng Inc. -W (09868).
【Brokerage Focus】BOCOM INTL: After a sales surge in December, the auto market enters the Consumer off-season, caution is needed as the performance of the Autos Sector stock prices may show fluctuations.
Jingwu Financial News | BOCOM INTL releases the monthly report for the Autos Industry. In November 2024, retail sales of Passenger Vehicles increased by 16.5% year-on-year, with domestic brands remaining strong. The retail penetration rate of Electric Vehicles in November was 52.3%, marking the fifth consecutive month above 50%. The export growth rate slowed in November, with the share of Electric Vehicles dropping to 20%. Considering that the Spring Festival in 2025 is earlier than in 2024, leading to some car purchases before the Spring Festival being completed by the end of 2024, and the trade-in subsidy policy entering the final phase in December, some car manufacturers are also boosting sales through promotional activities. The bank expects the Passenger Vehicle market to maintain its performance in December.
Hong Kong stock morning report on December 11: Citic Lyonn claims to be Bullish on the KUAJINGZIJIN flow and IPO recovery of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with SenseTime's share placement financing nearly 2.8 billion Hong Kong dollars directed towards cor
① CITIC Securities is Bullish on the flow of KUAJINGZIJIN and the recovery of IPOs at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. ② SenseTime's share placement financing of nearly 2.8 billion yuan is used for the development of core Business. ③ HUA HONG SEMI's 12-inch production line at the Wuxi base has been completed and is in production. ④ The Shanghai Stock Exchange will review Guolian Securities' additional share issuance and acquisition matters next week.
Everbright: The impact of the vehicle trade-in subsidy for the entire year is far better than expected. Bullish on investment opportunities in the Autos Sector driven by policy support.
The Politburo meeting has prioritized loose policies and boosting consumer activity, which are highly relevant to the Autos industry.
U.S. stocks closed: The Dow Jones fell for four consecutive days, Chinese concept stocks plummeted over 4%, as the market focused on the CPI report.
① The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 4.34%, as China Concept Stocks collectively declined; ② Apple is reportedly planning to equip its smartwatches with satellite communication capabilities; ③ Google A rose 5.62%, as the company launched its latest quantum chip "Willow," achieving significant technological breakthroughs; ④ Microsoft shareholders voted against the Bitcoin investment proposal.
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Jibang Consulting: In the third quarter, the total installed capacity of global electric vehicle traction power inverters reached 6.87 million units, an increase of 7% compared to the previous quarter.
In the third quarter of 2024, the total installed capacity of global electric vehicle traction power inverters reached 6.87 million units, which is a 7% increase compared to the previous quarter, but the growth rate has declined compared to the same period last year.
Hong Kong stocks move | Auto stocks generally rise, with new energy passenger vehicle sales in November increasing by over 50%. A "tail end market" is expected in the auto market by the end of the year.
Auto stocks generally rose. As of the time of writing, Geely Auto (00175) increased by 4.54%, trading at HKD 16.12; NIO-SW (09866) rose 3.8%, trading at HKD 39.6; BYD Company (01211) increased by 2.92%, trading at HKD 281.8.