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USA's July PCE inflation rose moderately, paving the way for a rate cut next month.
①In July, the overall PCE price index increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with an expected 2.6%; the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, in line with expectations. ② The impact of this report may be insignificant, but it does confirm what Fed Chairman Powell said, with the focus potentially being on employment trends, as people believe that the inflation trend may continue towards the 2% target.
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50 basis points to start an interest rate cut cycle? The Federal Reserve has never done this before.
Deutsche Bank believes that if the labor market remains stable, the Federal Reserve may choose to gradually reduce interest rates by 25 basis points, and will not reduce interest rates sharply all at once.
Fed's Powell: Inflation still poses upside risks, but supports a 25 basis point rate cut next month.
①Baljan pointed out that he tends to take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, gradually adjusting policies by observing market and economic reactions; ②The practice of "lower hiring, lower firing" currently adopted by American companies is unlikely to continue.
Did the significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve boost risk assets? Historical results are counterintuitive.
In the history of modern finance, there have been 14 complete cycles of the Federal Reserve. Although the market's reaction to interest rate cuts may vary at different times, there are some obvious trends: when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates quickly, the market performance is worse compared to a gradual interest rate cut scenario. In the scenario of rapid interest rate cuts, within one year after the first interest rate cut, the maximum drawdown is twice as much as in the scenario of gradual interest rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve is "in position"! The global easing curtain is expected to open a new chapter next month.
Last Friday, officials from the three major central banks of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe coincidentally stated that they will enter an interest rate cut cycle in the coming months or continue the previous rate cut pace. This indicates that as the global economy gradually emerges from the post-pandemic period of high inflation, the era of high global borrowing costs is about to end, and the loose monetary policies of major central banks are also expected to usher in a new chapter next month.
On the eve of the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve officials are sounding dovish, expressing strong support for an early rate cut.
Officials still emphasize the health of the US labor market and economy, but advocate for gradually starting to reduce interest rates as soon as possible.
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The key clues to the Fed's end of balance sheet reduction need to be found in tonight's Fed minutes?
As the discussion on when the Federal Reserve will end its current quantitative tightening (QT) policy continues to heat up on Wall Street, market strategists are hoping to gain more guidance from the Fed minutes to be released tonight; While most market observers currently predict that the Fed will completely end its balance sheet reduction at some point towards the end of this year, the specific timing has yet to be determined.
"Jackson Hole" is a blessing for the stock market? Illustration: over the years, the U.S. stock market has risen more than fallen before and after this event.
One of the main focuses of the global financial market this week is the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, which will kick off on Thursday. According to DataTrek Research, the good news is that historically, the US stock market has risen more than fallen before and after this annual economic policy seminar hosted by the Federal Reserve.
What will Powell, Jackson, and Hull say at the annual meeting? Traders focus on interest rate cuts, and this Friday may cause a huge earthquake in the US stock market.
Wall Street insiders believe that Powell may not give a clear signal on interest rate cuts, and the key to maintaining market sentiment is not Powell's words, but his tone. The options market pricing expects that the rise or fall of the S&P on Friday will exceed 1%.
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The latest inflation data in the USA has reduced market concerns about the recession of the USA's economy, and investors are re-entering the stock market. However, there are signs that a larger correction is imminent.
Before the annual meeting of the central bank, the Federal Reserve's voting committee hinted that inflation had been controlled and supported gradual interest rate cuts.
Mary Daly has the voting right for the September FOMC meeting, and she called for a "prudent" approach. "Gradualism is not weak, slow, or backward, it is just cautious. Although the labor market has slowed down, it is not weak."
The annual global central bank feast! This week, all attention will be focused on this 'USA town'.
For Wall Street, besides the regular eight Federal Reserve meetings every year, perhaps the most notable on the macro monetary policy level is the annual Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference hosted by the Kansas Fed; This year's conference will be held on August 22-24 Eastern Time.
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Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve and Governor Bailey of the Bank of England will give speeches one after another. The media will also interview officials of all sizes about policy prospects. Goldman Sachs believes that Powell will send signals of "rate cut confidence" and "data dependence".
Senior officials from the Federal Reserve are sounding the alarm for impending recession: warning signals for the economy and employment are flashing!
Next year, Piotr Gulczyński, the chairman of the Polish National Bank, stated that there is a risk of continuously rising unemployment rates. The Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates before the job market weakens further, otherwise it may act too late and jeopardize the economy.
Fed rate cut is imminent! Wells Fargo & Co: the US stock market will usher in a bull market comparable to 1995.
Paul Christopher, global investment strategist of Wells Fargo & Co, said that the US stock market is about to see an unprecedented rise in 30 years; the current market has similarities with the market in 1995, when the stock market was booming and the S&P 500 index hit 77 historical highs; investors may currently face an environment similar to that of 1995-inflation is declining, and the economy has not collapsed.