GTJA: Trump's tariffs are contrary to expectations and may adopt a "small amount, multiple times" negotiation strategy.
Before the release of the non-farm employment data and CPI report at the beginning of February, the market mainly followed the carry logic, and the Bonds market is closely related to the Exchange Rates.
On Trump's inauguration day, the dollar weakened as the market focused on the outlook for tariff policies.
According to the analysis of Bank of America Global Research, the US dollar performed weakly on President Trump's inauguration day and continued to be under pressure on Tuesday.
Forex Today: Markets Remain Focused on Trump's Policies
The clouds of a tax war between multinational companies are gathering. What impact does the USA's cessation of support for the Global tax agreement have?
① Trump explicitly stated that the OECD's global minimum tax agreement has "no effect" in the USA; ② this statement also reversed the Biden administration's support for and promotion of reforms to the global tax system; ③ in addition to not supporting the OECD's tax reform, Trump's executive order also implies the expansion of the scope of extraterritorial tax retaliation.
USD Rebounds on Renewed Tariff Threat – Scotiabank
The decline of the dollar cannot stop the Call sentiment, reaching the highest level since 2016.
As Trump begins his second term, the betting on the dollar by MMF has reached its highest level since before he first took office in the White House. CFTC data shows that in just the past three and a half months, hedge funds have shifted approximately 15 billion dollars of net short positions in the dollar to over 35 billion dollars of net long positions, marking the largest 'long' since January 2016.