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【Brokerage Focus】jpmorgan indicates that the trend of reverse logistics is becoming increasingly important, and the competitive landscape in the logistics field is being reshaped.
JPMorgan released a research report, stating that during the november 11 shopping festival-related period, China's express parcel volume reached a record high, with a year-on-year growth of 25%, while pricing trends remained stable. The e-commerce market is entering a new phase, with competition expected to be more moderate by 2025. Traditional platforms like Taobao / Tmall and jd.com maintain stable market positions, while pdd holdings continues to grow by offering high-cost-effective commodities. The report further points out that data for October shows that e-commerce growth benefited from stimulus policies and an early start to november 11 shopping festival, with online retail sales increasing by 10% year-on-year and home appliance sales increasing by 39%. Industry data shows parcel volumes, physical commodities.
Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Promoting stable growth in foreign trade releases another "combination punch", the cross-border e-commerce industry welcomes bullish news (including concept stocks).
On November 21, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on several policy measures to promote stable growth of foreign trade. It pointed out the need to strengthen financing support for foreign trade enterprises.
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057) Receives a Buy From Jefferies
Major bank rating | Daiwa: Downgraded zto express target price to HKD 195, reaffirmed 'buy' rating.
Daiwa released research reports indicating that ZTO Express has lowered its full-year parcel volume growth guidance for this year from a range of 15% to 18% to a range of 11.6% to 12.3%, believing it is due to the strong growth of low stock price parcels. Daiwa believes that ZTO's market share declined year-on-year in the last quarter, coupled with abundant capacity. Looking ahead to next year, the focus can be more on increasing parcel volume and market share, along with expected cost reductions. It is predicted that the annual profit growth rate from 2025 to 2026 can reach double-digit percentage points. Daiwa has lowered ZTO Express's listed in Hong Kong target price from 210 Hong Kong dollars to 195 Hong Kong dollars, reiterating a 'buy' rating, maintaining the forecast of full-year profit reaching 102.8.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Parcel Growth and ...
Credit rating of Citibank: UBS：downgrades zto express target price to HK$188.28, third-quarter parcel volume growth rate lower than expected.
Lyon released a report stating that zto express's parcel volume in the third quarter only increased by 16% year-on-year, continuing to be lower than the overall market growth of 20% and below expectations. The management aims to increase market share next year while maintaining a reasonable profit, which the bank believes to be the right decision as economies of scale remain the most important element for logistics companies. Lyon mentioned that although they are optimistic about the company's stable profit per unit in the fourth quarter, due to intense market competition, the company's earnings per share forecast for 2024 to 2026 has been respectively reduced by 7.9%, 13.5%, and 19.1%, with the target price lowered from 223.43 Hong Kong dollars to 18.
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