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Express News | China January-February Coal Imports up 1.5% at 77.22 Mln Metric Tons - Customs
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Hong Kong-listed coal stocks rose against the market trend as surging oil and gas prices triggered an energy substitution effect, with institutions indicating that domestic and international coal prices may experience a stronger-than-expected increase.
In terms of market developments, the surge in oil and gas prices amid U.S.-Iran tensions triggered an energy substitution effect. Orient Securities released a research report stating that the transmission mechanism in the coal market is reflected in rising fuel costs leading to higher shipping fees and soaring natural gas prices prompting some regions to increase coal-fired power generation as a substitute for expensive natural gas, which could drive coal prices to rise counter-seasonally.
Founder Securities: The weak supply and demand situation in the coal market is expected to be corrected, with companies having strong coal price elasticity likely to lead the earnings reversal.
The bank believes that companies with strong coal price elasticity are likely to see a turnaround in performance first. If coal prices remain high, low valuation stocks may also experience a recovery in valuation.
Open Source Securities: Multiple positive marginal catalysts for coal at a low position, with dual logic of cyclical dividends resonating upward.
Thermal coal is categorized as a policy-regulated coal type. The bank assesses that the upward price movement will undergo four stages: 'restoration of long-term agreements with central state-owned enterprises, restoration of long-term agreements with local entities, reaching the profit-sharing line for coal and electricity, surpassing and approaching the break-even line on power plant financial statements.'
