投资者对林吉特的乐观态度反映了他们对马来西亚经济前景改善的信心。本季度，林吉特兑美元的汇率已经上涨了5.5%。随着市场对美国降息预期的增强，预计会吸引更多的外资流入马来西亚的债券市场。The strong rise of the Malaysian ringgit has attracted global funds, which have increased their purchases of local Malaysian bonds.
According to data from the Malaysian central bank, foreign investors injected 5.5 billion ringgit (approximately 1.2 billion US dollars) into the Malaysian bond market in July, which set a record one-month inflow of funds in the past year. The appreciation of the ringgit has also driven the total return on bonds this year to reach 5.9%, which is outstanding among emerging markets.
Winson Phoon, the head of fixed-income research at the Singapore-based CIMB Private Banking, pointed out that "the expectation of further strengthening of the ringgit has attracted foreign capital inflows into the bond market, which may be unhedged against forex risks, thereby forming a positive feedback loop. The appreciation of the ringgit is consistent with the upward trend of the local bond market."
Investor optimism about the ringgit reflects their confidence in the improvement of the Malaysian economic outlook. This quarter, the ringgit has risen by 5.5% against the US dollar. As the market's expectations of a US interest rate cut increase, it is expected to attract more foreign capital inflows into the Malaysian bond market.
The boom in the Malaysian bond market is also due to the relatively light foreign holdings of bonds before the adjustment of the US Federal Reserve's expectations. In the past 12 months, the amount of bonds purchased by global funds is still below the five-year average level by 0.6 standard deviations.
Maybank predicts that the yield of Malaysian 10-year government bonds will decline to 3.5% by the mid-term of 2025, because the market generally expects the central bank to maintain the overnight policy rate at 3% next year. The reduction of inflation risk and the robust domestic growth outlook are key factors that support this expectation. On Wednesday, the trading price of benchmark bonds with a maturity of 10 years was about 3.75%.
Investors are also closely monitoring the time and magnitude of Malaysia's possible reduction of the most widely used gasoline subsidy domestically to assess its potential impact on consumer prices.
"Driven by the recovery in exports, the closure of long positions in the US dollar, and further inflows of foreign bonds and stocks, we tend to tactically push the USD/MYR exchange rate to the reasonable value target below 4.30", said Michelle Chia, a strategist at CIMB Bhd., in a report on Monday.