Who can take over the White House? The financial markets are already betting.
The final stage of the USA election has begun. With less than 12 days left, the race is extremely tight.
Currently, Trump and Harris are neck and neck, both using all their tricks to win more voter support.
On November 5th, who will ultimately take over the White House? The answer is still full of suspense.
"Stock God" doesn't take sides.
Currently, the showdown between the two candidates is getting more intense, and behind them, there are also "big donors" crazily spending money.
Previously, Trump brought Musk to assist.
Super billionaire Musk not only appeared multiple times to cheer for him, but also fully utilized his financial resources, lavishly spending millions of dollars to "buy voters" for Trump.
Reportedly, Musk donated around 75 million US dollars to Trump.
It has to be said that in this heated 'battle', Trump and Musk can be considered as mutually devoted and aligned in their goals.
On Harris' side, billionaire Bill Gates recently donated 50 million US dollars to her.
In response, Gates only stated that he 'supports candidates who make clear commitments to improve healthcare, reduce poverty, and combat climate change in the United States and globally'.
According to Forbes magazine statistics, Harris has received support from approximately 80 billionaires, while Trump has about 50 billionaire backers.
As the capital markets are buzzing in support of Trump and Harris, 'Oracle of Omaha' Buffett publicly declared that he will not endorse any political candidates.
On Wednesday local time, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway published a brief statement on its website:
"With the increasing use of social media, there are endless fraudulent claims about Mr. Buffett's endorsement of investment products and political candidates."
"Buffett currently and in the future will not endorse investment products, nor will he endorse or support political candidates."
As the date of the US presidential election approaches, in order to avoid AI on the internet impersonating him "taking sides" and candidates using his endorsement for publicity, this statement from the "Stock God" emerged.
Buffett also explained that he is concerned about the online impersonation of him.
"I am worried that someone will impersonate me, so we have posted this information on Berkshire's website. No one should believe I am telling them how to invest or how to vote (in the election)."
Known as the 'Oracle of Omaha,' Buffett is one of the most accomplished and influential investors in American history.
In the past four presidential elections, he has supported the Democratic Party three times.
Previously, he publicly supported Clinton's presidential campaign in 2016, as well as President Obama's 2012 and 2008 White House campaigns.
But during the 2020 presidential election, Buffett neither opposed Biden nor supported Trump.
Who will take over the White House? Financial markets are placing bets.
Currently, Trump has once again surpassed Harris.
According to the latest opinion poll by The Wall Street Journal, Trump leads Harris by 47% to 45%.
In comparison, in the survey in August, Harris had a lead of 2 percentage points.
According to the predictions of the political gambling website Polymarket, the advantages and disadvantages between the two have become more disparate.
Currently, Trump's chances of winning the presidency are as high as 60%, while Harris is at less than 40%.
With just two weeks left until the US election day, Trump and Harris are tirelessly campaigning in the swing states of the USA.
Global funds have also begun to place their bets one after another.
Vincent Mistretta, Vice President of FICC at Goldman Sachs, recently stated that the market positioning tends towards Trump winning. This was the case before the recent rise in the odds of Trump winning.
Goldman Sachs analysts Mark Salib and Fernando Alvarado Aguilar also mentioned that various clients have been buying this week, including hedge funds preparing for a potential Trump victory.
However, Bank of America believes that the election results will have minimal impact on the US stock market.
Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian stated that in fact, the US stock market rarely cares about which political party will control the White House. Instead, investors should focus entirely on corporate profit growth.
She predicts that regardless of who wins in the November election, the US stock market will rise by 2025.
And it is expected that the earnings per share of S&P 500 index component companies next year will increase by 13% year-on-year, while profit growth has always been the biggest driver of stock market gains.
CICC research analysis believes that the financial markets have indicative significance for the election.
For assets, whether it is a scenario of 'Republican Party sweeping' or 'Trump + Democratic House of Representatives,' it is more likely to lead to an increase in US bond yields, a stronger US dollar, and even though gold may show value as a safe haven due to high interest rate suppression.
The difference lies in the scenario of 'Republican Party sweeping,' economic growth is better, the boost to US stock earnings is greater, and the magnitude of the increase in US bond yields may also be higher.