$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ shares are trading 12% higher on Friday afternoon. But it's also trading at an astonishing 256% premium to the net asset value (NAV) of its $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ holdings, according to research conducted by BitMEX.
The analysis highlights the extreme valuation disparity between MicroStrategy's current market capitalization, driven by its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy, and the actual value of the Bitcoin it holds.
"MicroStrategy's premium is insane, perhaps in part driven by some financial regulators banning people from buying Bitcoin ETFs. These people are so desperate for Bitcoin exposure, they buy MSTR instead, despite the premium," BitMEX Research stated.
MicroStrategy currently holds 331,200 bitcoin, valued at approximately $32.3 billion, assuming a Bitcoin price of $97,600.
However, with a fully diluted market cap of $115 billion and a share price of $474, the company's valuation significantly exceeds its Bitcoin holdings.
This disparity reflects an implicit bet by investors on the company's ability to leverage its premium for further Bitcoin acquisitions.
BitMEX Research explored scenarios where MicroStrategy could theoretically align its Bitcoin per share value with its current trading price of $474, assuming the Bitcoin price remains constant at $97,600 and the premium persists.
Under these conditions, MicroStrategy would need to:
Issue 157 million additional shares, raising $157 billion.
Accumulate 1.9 million Bitcoin in total holdings.
Reach a market capitalization of $674 billion, with a share price climbing to $1,685.
This iterative calculation assumes the company continues issuing new equity at a premium to acquire more Bitcoin, a strategy MicroStrategy has employed since 2020.
"If the premium persists, the company can keep issuing new shares until the value of the Bitcoin per share equals the current share price," BitMEX Research added.
