罗森伯格在写给客户的信中指出，“现在对我来说，是时候停止对美国股市被疯狂高估这一观点进行高谈阔论，也是时候停止武断地给出看空理由了。”1. Renowned usa economist David Rosenberg has changed his long-held bearish stance, stating that the technology boom driven by ai has made him rethink us stocks; 2. Rosenberg indicated that if ai unleashes a wave of productivity, extreme valuations may make sense; 3. Rosenberg noted that although there is a possibility of a bubble, it may not manifest in the coming years, and he is open to the idea that the stock market bull run could 'go further.'
On December 9, Financial Associated Press (Editor: Zhou Ziyi) reported that David Rosenberg, a well-known usa economist and president of Rosenberg Research, has changed his bearish position after experiencing a strong stock market rebound this year.
Although he emphasized that his latest viewpoint does not equate to 'giving in,' he also admitted that the ai-driven technology boom requires him to reassess his views on the stock market.
In a letter to clients, Rosenberg pointed out, 'For me, it is time to stop waxing eloquent about the us stock market being wildly overvalued, and it is also time to stop arbitrarily giving bearish reasons.'
The bull market 'may go further.'
For a long time, Rosenberg has been comparing today's stock market valuations with past valuations to emphasize how extreme current stock market valuations are in a historical context. In fact, us stock market valuations have indeed reached historically extreme levels; last week, long-term bull market strategist on Wall Street, Ed Yardeni, highlighted this through graphs.
However, Rosenberg's latest viewpoint indicates that if ai can unleash a wave of productivity in the economy, then extreme valuations may actually make sense.
Blackrock also echoed this viewpoint in its 2025 outlook, stating that comparing today's market valuations with past market valuations is like comparing 'apples to oranges' due to the inherent differences between the two.
Perhaps more importantly, these strategists believe that the prospects of ai will ultimately lead investors to extend their time horizon for outlooks, rather than the traditional annual outlook.
Rosenberg stated, "Investors are clearly looking at all the indicators and developments for the coming year, so the traditional approach seems not to apply to the way we are viewing valuations today." He added that even if there is a bubble in the stock market, it may not manifest for several years, similar to the internet bubble that began to form in the mid-1990s and ultimately burst in 2000.
As profits soar for technology companies like nvidia, the prosperity attracting investors does not seem extreme or unsustainable.
Rosenberg pointed out, "A bear market will only follow when these expectations prove to be excessive. This day may likely come, but the market has shown that it’s not entirely the case."
Looking ahead, Rosenberg expressed a more open attitude towards the possibility that the bull market in the stock market might "go further than anyone imagines."
