How Trump and Harris Talk About Stocks
Key Takeaways
President Trump and Vice President Harris have disparate views on the stock market, primarily stemming from their economic policy and political agenda differences.
Analysts argue that a Trump 2024 victory could lead to short-term stock rallies due to continued low taxes and deregulation but could create longer-term uncertainty.
From a possible Harris win, analysts suggest it might cause short-term market instability due to corporate tax hikes but could lead to more sustainable, long-term growth.
As we near the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, many investors are viewing the differences between President Trump and Vice President Harris. One focus is the stock market, with the two candidates having differing views, primarily influenced by their political agendas and economic policies.
Trump tends to emphasize deregulation and tax cuts, particularly for corporations. His policies, including the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, were intended to reduce corporate tax rates, with the belief that this would stimulate economic growth and boost stock market performance. During his presidency, Trump frequently celebrated the stock market's performance as a sign of economic success.
Downsides with Trump's views towards the stock include his trade war with China, which involved imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods, led to market volatility. Some critics have argued that Trump tax cuts disproportionately benefited wealthy individuals and large corporations without translating to long-term economic growth as well as some of his policies could lead to unsustainable corporate debt and increased national deficits, becoming long-term risks.
Investors who favor Trump typically expect that his approach will support corporate earnings and drive stock market gains, particularly in sectors like manufacturing and energy.
With Harris, she advocates proposals to raise taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations. This could slow economic growth, lower earnings, diminish the nation's global competitiveness and possibly lead to higher corporate taxes.
However, Harris' plans, focused on main street vs Wall Street, are intended to provide middle-class relief; she has consistently advocated for reducing income inequality, increasing the minimum wage, and providing broader worker protections.
Some investors also predict increased market volatility if Harris were to win the presidency; however, her supporters see her economic vision as a longer-term strategy for creating a more balanced and sustainable economy.
Background of both candidates
Harris background
With her vast political career, Harris has been one of firsts: the first female, Black, and South Asian to serve in different roles.
Harris was San Francisco's District Attorney (2004-2011), focusing on criminal justice reform, including programs aimed at reducing recidivism. As California Attorney General (2011-2017), Harris took on issues like mortgage fraud, environmental protection, and consumer protection, often clashing with powerful institutions.
Harris served as a U.S. Senator from California (2017-2021) and sat on key committees, including the Judiciary, Intelligence, and Homeland Security. Harris gained national attention for her pointed questioning of Trump administration officials and Supreme Court nominees.
As Vice President of the United States (since 2021), Harris' responsibilities address issues like voting rights, immigration reform, and economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Trump background
Prior to his 2016 presidential run, Trump had expressed political ambitions but was not closely aligned with any one party, changing his affiliations at various points. In June 2015, Trump announced his Republican candidacy for president, focusing on populist, nationalist, and anti-establishment rhetoric, and his slogan, still used today,“Make America Great Again” (MAGA), also became a powerful message.
Trump lost his 2020 re-election campaign to Biden and then refused to concede the election; he claimed widespread voter fraud without presenting credible evidence. His refusal to accept the results led to the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, when a pro-Trump mob stormed the U.S. Capitol.
Trump's notable achievements and controversies
Trump's notable achievements include the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which represented a major overhaul of the U.S. tax code; it significantly reduced corporate tax rates from 35% to 21% to boost investment and economic growth. The act also cut taxes for individuals and doubled the standard deduction. The stock market, particularly the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, hit record highs multiple times during Trump’s term, with supporters attributing these gains to his pro-business policies.
Trump's management of the COVID-19 pandemic was highly controversial, with critics arguing that his administration downplayed the severity of the virus early on. It was slow in scaling up testing, and sent mixed messages regarding mask-wearing.
Trump has been impeached twice and acquitted. First in 2019 by the House of Representatives on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. For the second time in 2021, this followed the January 6 Capitol riot for "incitement of insurrection." The House accused him of encouraging the violent attack by his supporters.
Additional controversies include the 2017 "Very Fine People" controversy, his immigration policies, including the U.S.-Mexico border wall and the 2020 election fraud claims.
Harris' notable achievements & controversies
As a U.S. Senator from California, Harris advocated for progressive causes, including healthcare reform, criminal justice reform, and environmental protection. When she was Attorney General of California for six years, Harris took on issues like mortgage fraud, environmental protection, and consumer protection, often clashing with powerful institutions. She notably refused to defend Proposition 8, a law that banned same-sex marriage, helping to pave the way for marriage equality in California.
Harris' controversies include her criminal justice record as California Attorney General. This has been criticized, particularly by progressives, for being too tough on crime. Harris personally opposed the death penalty but continued to defend California’s death penalty in court, drawing criticism from both sides of the political spectrum.
During her 2020 presidential campaign, Harris initially supported Medicare for All, a single-payer healthcare system, but she later shifted her position to a more moderate stance, proposing a public option that would allow private insurance to remain.
As Vice President's, her immigration remarks in a 2021 speech addressing migration from Central America, urged migrants not to come to the U.S., saying, “Do not come”was met with backlash from immigrant rights activists, who argued that it sent a mixed message given the Biden administration’s more humane stance on immigration policy.
Institutional analyses on the stock impact of Trump or Harris winning
Institutional analyses on the stock market impact of Trump or Harris winning an election tend to focus on their differing economic policies and how they could influence sectors, investor behavior, and overall market dynamics. Trump’s economic policies are generally viewed as pro-business and favorable for markets, particularly due to his focus on tax cuts, deregulation, and corporate-friendly policies.
Trump and Harris represent very different economic ideologies, which can create market volatility. Analysts argue that a Trump 2024 victory could lead to short-term stock rallies due to continued low taxes and deregulation but could create longer-term uncertainty, particularly around trade tensions with China and growing fiscal deficits. Overall, institutional analyses suggest that a Trump victory would have favored traditional sectors like energy, defense, and finance, while maintaining a business-friendly environment for stock growth.
The Harris approach, focused on social equity, green energy, and healthcare reform, might cause short-term market instability due to corporate tax hikes but could lead to more sustainable, long-term growth, especially in sectors related to climate change and infrastructure.
What Trump and Harris have said about stock sectors
During his presidency, Trump focused on pro-business, pro-manufacturing, and deregulation policies, which benefited traditional industries like fossil fuels, manufacturing, and financials but created volatility in tech due to trade tensions and regulatory uncertainty.
Harris, aligned with the Biden administration, focuses on clean energy, healthcare reform, and infrastructure, with policies that are more regulation-friendly, especially toward technology and environmental sustainability, creating opportunities for renewable energy stocks and healthcare innovation but raising questions about the future of Big Tech and traditional energy companies.
Here's a deeper look.
The steel industry
Both candidates take different approaches to the steel industry, with Trump focusing on immediate protectionism; Harris emphasizes long-term growth through sustainable infrastructure and energy initiatives.
Trump’s strategy during his presidency for the steel industry was heavily protectionist, using tariffs and trade policy to shield American steel producers from foreign competition, especially from China. His focus was on creating jobs and reviving traditional manufacturing industries through policies like tariffs and the USMCA.
In 2018, the Trump administration implemented a 25% tariff on imported steel (and a 10% tariff on aluminum), under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, citing national security concerns. The goal was to protect American steel manufacturers from foreign dumping, particularly from China, which was accused of flooding the market with underpriced steel, driving down prices and hurting U.S. producers.
As for Harris, she has expressed a supportive stance toward the steel industry, particularly in the context of promoting American manufacturing, protecting jobs, and addressing trade practices that affect U.S. steel producers.
In September 2024 in response to US Steel, Harris said at a campaign stop that the company should remain domestically owned and that it is 'vital for our nation to maintain strong American steel companies.'
Manufacturing
Trump has consistently emphasized the importance of reviving American manufacturing, making it a key part of his political platform. His approach centers on bringing back jobs from overseas, particularly from China, and revitalizing industrial sectors in the U.S. In Trump's first two years as president, manufacturing jobs increased but growth leveled off in the third year as the pandemic hit.
While campaigning this year, Trump said at a rally:
Together, we will reclaim our nation’s destiny as the No. 1 manufacturing superpower in the world. … We had that going at a level that nobody had seen before. … Some facts that are interesting. The year before I took office, the United States lost over 10,000 manufacturing jobs. Everybody said you’d never bring it back. But under my leadership, we created more than a half a million manufacturing jobs in less than three years. … And under Kamala, we have fallen into manufacturing recession with 13,000 manufacturing jobs lost in the United States since just the start of this year.
Similar to Trump, Biden saw manufacturing jobs increase in his first two years but they tapered off in year three. In remarks from Harris at a campaign event just prior to Biden dropping out the race, she said on July 18, 2024:
Donald Trump tries to claim he brought back American manufacturing. The fact is, under Donald Trump, America lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs. … Meanwhile, President Joe Biden and I have created nearly 800,000 new manufacturing jobs — so much so, it’s been described as a “manufacturing boom.”
Harris promotes modern and sustainable manufacturing, with a focus on green energy, clean tech, and high-tech industries. Her policies align with a climate-friendly approach to manufacturing, aiming for job creation through innovation and infrastructure investments while emphasizing worker rights and equity.
Technology
Trump supports a lighter regulatory touch on AI and other emerging technologies, while Harris understands the way AI is transforming communications and service delivery, and the need for public oversight.
As VP, Harris emerged as the Biden administration’s leading voice on AI policy, bringing together executives from OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Anthropic at the White House to establish voluntary safety standards for AI. The administration also issued an executive order to regulate federal use and development of AI, although congressional action remained limited, leaving the tech industry with considerable freedom. And under this administration, an unprecedented amount of funding has been dedicated to expanding the nation's broadband infrastructure, marking the largest investment in this area by any administration.
From a possible Harris presidency, she would likely continue Biden’s tough antitrust enforcement and avoid income tax increases for people earning less than $400,000 but she wants she wants to increase taxes on the ultra-wealthy.
The two candidates differ for cryptocurrency regulation. Trump advocates for a lighter approach. Harris takes a tougher stand on cryptocurrency regulation, believing consumers need protection and there should be greater transparency in the crypto marketplace.
If history repeats itself, Trump will stop programs for broadband and try to recoup the funds. He may continue current tech antitrust enforcement cases but give a green light to tech mergers and acquisitions.
When it comes to tech billionaires, look for Trump to extend his 2017 tax cuts (set to expire in 2025) and make additional income and corporate tax cuts.
Finance
During his presidency, Trump implemented several significant changes in the banking sector. He rolled back the Department of Housing and Urban Development's (HUD) Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing rule, which aimed to combat housing discrimination. Additionally, he introduced temporary moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures for properties backed by HUD. Trump also signed a regulatory relief bill that included numerous pro-banking reforms, which many industry professionals believe indicate his continued support for the banking sector. Experts anticipate that he will maintain a favorable stance toward banking institutions in the future
Although Harris has maintained a relatively low profile regarding the administration's financial policies, analysts suggest that her history of challenging Wall Street banks and opposing deregulation indicates she would likely support Biden's ambitious agenda. The Biden administration has focused on implementing and proposing rules aimed at curbing bank fees, regulating non-bank lenders and medical debt providers, enhancing transparency for hedge funds, increasing capital requirements for banks, and launching enforcement actions against major cryptocurrency firm
Pharmaceutical
If Trump has a second term, he would likely continue supporting Medicare's ability to negotiate drug prices, unless the pharmaceutical industry presents a more attractive alternative, according to insiders. During his first term, Trump introduced policies aimed at lowering prescription drug costs, though their implementation faced challenges and achieved limited success.
For a potential second term, Trump has been short on specifics for drug pricing and he has not said whether or not he would repeal the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act; however, he administation could weaken it.
As vice president, Harris cast the deciding 2022 Senate vote on legislation that empowered Medicare to negotiate drug prices for over 60 million beneficiaries. Prior to this, during her tenure as California attorney general, she took an assertive stance in regulating the pharmaceutical industry, pushing for accountability and consumer protection.
Harris has also advocated for utilizing march-in rights to lower drug prices, a measure that would enable the government to seize control of certain patents if companies fail to make treatments affordable. She has also pledged to expand President Biden's policies to cover more medications and reach more Americans. She plans to use the savings generated from broadening drug price negotiations to fund a comprehensive new proposal that would provide long-term in-home care for Medicare beneficiaries.
Conclusion
Under a potential Trump or Harris presidency, their policies will differ based on experience, beliefs, and political philosophies and therefore likely affect the stock market differently. Trump's presidency was marked by frequent market volatility tied to his unpredictable policy announcements and tweets, particularly regarding trade and the Federal Reserve. However, markets generally performed well under his administration.
As for Harris, without a proven track record, investors might anticipate more regulation, leading to cautious market sentiment in the short term. However, sectors tied to clean energy, infrastructure, and technology could experience growth due to increased government investment and support.
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