The Goldman Sachs Research Department slightly lowered the US economic growth forecast. It is currently estimated that the US real GDP growth rate in 2022 will be 3.8%, which is still two percentage points higher than the potential growth rate. Judging by the data from the earlier employment report, the US labor market is rapidly absorbing surplus idle labor. Based on the improvement trend in the past few months, these labor market data are likely to return to the level of February 2020 in the middle of next year. If this is the case, the US Federal Open Market Committee may determine that the "maximum employment" interest rate hike conditions have been met. In contrast, the inflationary signals are mixed. On the one hand, the prices of durable goods such as used cars have continued to soar, and the core CPI has risen again. The already-stricken manufacturing supply chain has added new problems due to the Omikeron mutant strain. Especially in Asia, the risk aversion sentiment of the new crown still far exceeds that of other regions. On the other hand, oil prices plummeted, shipping costs and shipping interruptions began to return to normal.
Zzile : Return of China is a good investment theme in 2022, expected the bottoming of the China index - limited downside with great upside potential. Shouldn't look further than the a50 China index etf.
Nick94928 Zzile : How does the government clamping down on profits influence this? will they let companies be profitable or will they clamp down on them again, and how (possibly) soon would they do this again? these are my questions regarding investing in any China stocks.
Zzile Nick94928 : US and rest of the world still have to rely on China on supply of cheap products from China - a key factor to fight inflationary pressure. So the relative advantage in cost in term of labor and system efficiency here is irreplaceable in foreseeable future. The 20th Congress in November to officially cement the position of leaders in the next 5 year is important event, that winter Olympics and sentiments of financial stability is monumental showcase to foreign investors - expect more encouraging government policies opposite to what happened in the last 2 years.
50 cent : I don't invest in things I don't believe in, when Xi Xing Ping is gone, I'll start investing in China again.
Nick94928 Zzile : thank you!
Zzile 50 cent : another 15 year