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-- 85.160 An overview of Goldman Sachs' investment outlook for 2022
The Goldman Sachs Research Department predicts that a new round of large-scale viral infections in the first quarter of 2022 will cause the Goldman Sachs Global Effective Lockdown Index (GS Effective Lockdown Index, ELI) to tighten, to a degree similar to the Delta mutant strain, but with the new vaccine And the popularity of antiviral drugs, Omi Keron's influence will gradually weaken.
The Goldman Sachs Research Department believes that if this trend continues, the epidemic will have a moderate negative impact of ¼-½ percentage point on the global economic growth rate for the whole year of 2022. There are significant differences between. The countries most severely affected by the epidemic are those with developed tourism, cold weather in the next few months, low vaccination rates, and high levels of risk aversion to the new crown epidemic (and “zero new crown” economies are extremely vulnerable to risks). Based on this judgment, the risks faced by East Asia, Northern Europe and Canada are relatively high, while the risks faced by the United States are slightly smaller, while the risks faced by Latin America and Africa are much smaller.
Looking ahead to U.S. economic growth
The Goldman Sachs Research Department slightly lowered the US economic growth forecast. It is currently estimated that the US real GDP growth rate in 2022 will be 3.8%, which is still two percentage points higher than the potential growth rate. Judging by the data from the earlier employment report, the US labor market is rapidly absorbing surplus idle labor. Based on the improvement trend in the past few months, these labor market data are likely to return to the level of February 2020 in the middle of next year. If this is the case, the US Federal Open Market Committee may determine that the "maximum employment" interest rate hike conditions have been met. In contrast, the inflationary signals are mixed. On the one hand, the prices of durable goods such as used cars have continued to soar, and the core CPI has risen again. The already-stricken manufacturing supply chain has added new problems due to the Omikeron mutant strain. Especially in Asia, the risk aversion sentiment of the new crown still far exceeds that of other regions. On the other hand, oil prices plummeted, shipping costs and shipping interruptions began to return to normal.
Capital market outlook
Goldman Sachs Research’s view of capital markets is more optimistic, especially after the recent sell-off of risky assets and commodities. The Goldman Sachs Research Department predicts that the interest rate hike cycle in advanced economies will last longer, so medium and long-term interest rates will face upward pressure. Although the Omi Keron mutant strain has added new problems, the performance of the stock market is still higher than the trend level, so it is more optimistic about the global stock market, but has a more neutral view on the trend of credit and the dollar. In terms of commodities, the recent oil sell-off is a good opportunity to enter the market for the long-term theme of "revenge from the old economy."
Focus on the return of China concept stocks and sector themes in 2022
Looking forward to 2022, Wang Yajun, co-head of equity capital markets at Goldman Sachs Asia (except Japan), believes that Hong Kong is one of the major global stock trading centers with a huge base of international investors and issuers. In the future, more and more Chinese companies will be listed in Hong Kong, and the return of Chinese concept stocks is expected to continue to be active.
In terms of sectors, he believes that TMT and the medical industry will continue to lead the Chinese corporate stock and stock-linked issuance. In line with the themes of domestic consumption and new energy vehicles, autonomous driving, and high-end manufacturing, stock issuance and financing in the consumer and industrial sectors has become more active.
Wang Yajun believes that, on the whole, 2022 may be a year worth looking forward to in the capital market. First of all, from the perspective of global investors, although this year's market is very turbulent, it can be felt that global funds have not left because of the turmoil. Chinese assets are still investment targets that are of great concern to domestic investors and overseas investors. It is possible that after the implementation of various aspects of the policy and the market gains relevant certainty, the market trend will return to the trajectory it should have.
Regarding the second reason for "worth the expectation," Wang Yajun pointed out that the world is expecting that next year's epidemic is expected to be relieved to a certain extent, or even completely resolved. From this point of view, the entire market will undoubtedly be full of expectations for 2022.
The third aspect is the investment theme in 2022, including technology, medical care, and the return of China's concept stocks. Under the concept of the entire consumption cycle, there is likely to be a rise in the consumer sector in 2022. At the same time, new energy such as the new energy promoted by the state in the past few years, as well as related industries or sub-sectors such as intelligent manufacturing and autonomous driving technology, may also be clearly reflected in the capital market.
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Zzile : Return of China is a good investment theme in 2022, expected the bottoming of the China index - limited downside with great upside potential. Shouldn't look further than the a50 China index etf.
Nick94928 Zzile : How does the government clamping down on profits influence this? will they let companies be profitable or will they clamp down on them again, and how (possibly) soon would they do this again? these are my questions regarding investing in any China stocks.
Zzile Nick94928 : US and rest of the world still have to rely on China on supply of cheap products from China - a key factor to fight inflationary pressure. So the relative advantage in cost in term of labor and system efficiency here is irreplaceable in foreseeable future. The 20th Congress in November to officially cement the position of leaders in the next 5 year is important event, that winter Olympics and sentiments of financial stability is monumental showcase to foreign investors - expect more encouraging government policies opposite to what happened in the last 2 years.
50 cent : I don't invest in things I don't believe in, when Xi Xing Ping is gone, I'll start investing in China again.
Nick94928 Zzile : thank you!
Zzile 50 cent : another 15 year