Spikes in pre market trading

ttttt123 : Could you elaborate more about this internal clearing process?

Your Average Trader OP ttttt123 :

orchid88 : thanks you! saw it a couple of times and wondered what they were.

sayno : Hi @Your Average Trader..  thank you for your advice in 101's channel. I'm a newbie, currently I'm in a rather bad position.. It's like no way out as I'm holding SQQQ at 43 range.

Dono how I ended up shorting but.. sigh..  

Would appreciate if you could give me some advice on an exit route. Thanks.

YNWA008 sayno : Hi, I really feel for you. Personally I feel the MM (Master Manipulator) is controlling the system. This upwards trend is getting more artificial by the day given the poor macro outlook. I decided to regain my peace and be more diligent in my daily work. Riding from the top of avalanche is not everyone forte.

Your Average Trader OP sayno : Part 1:

Ok firstly I just want to start with this is not an investment advice it's simply based on my experience and what I would do in your situation.

So first things first are you currently all in on SQQQ? Do you not have other long positions hedged against it? If answer is yes for both then I personally will try to significantly decrease my risk. The only way to do that is cut down your position size and realize significant losses. Unless you have a crystal ball or a high conviction set up where u have pre set stop losses I do not recommend averaging into short positions. Longs are another story. So only hold onto the amount of short you are willing to completely lose out on and do also have a sound reason as to why you are holding onto them e.g I believe there will be margin compression due to oil prices or recession in EU due to commodity crisis or US potentially due to interest shock.

Now even though yes markets can potentially have big pullbacks after big moves but I personally wouldn't recommend risking your entire portfolio based on a hope that there is going to be a pullback at some point which will allow you to escape with minimal loss. You have to accept the fact that your wrong as early/key levels as possible.

Everyone will have different Technical levels to watch out for. I can share some of mine and how I think markets will potentially move however again you must understamd these are MY levels. I have my own set of rules as to how I play around with these levels and my own set of fundimentals I have that gives me a bias towards a certain direction. But I cannot predict the future and so I can be wrong too. Even though my accuracy is relatively high but that's because I Scalp (a day trading strategy) a lot of my positions.

Your Average Trader OP : Part 2:

So if you look through my post I do have one for things to look out for this week. There I mentioned some key fundimental data you could potentially look at. However also do know new news do come out throughout the week e.g Restoration of 64% product exclusions from Trump tarrifs on China that came out Wednesday after market close.

So for my overall anaylsis along with my techical levels : Short term trend is pointing towards upside. Oils/Russias impact on stocks has significantly reduced. Vix and high yeild credit spread is low/healthy. Even though 2 year and 10 year has flattened the 3 month still looks relatively healthy meaning bond markets (way bigger then Stocks - some call them the real smart money) are not expecting recession in the short term. Overall PE for $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ seems a little over extended. Markets are not pricing in too much margin compression. Personally i do not know why and is the reason why i went net short last week after rates announcement. Now for pure technicals volume on the daily looks healthy. Resistances at ~14850 (which also coincides with 0.5 Fib level) for $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Future Main(JUN2)(NQmain.US)$. 15000 key physcological level potentially some decent healthy pullback from either of these resistances. If breaks through both these resistances with healthy volume expect to see 15300. Major support at 200ma ~ 14690 and 50ma 14450. RSI still not indicating over bought on daily but is indicating that on hourly. AAII sentiment from March 23 indicated 32.8 percent bullishness (personal interpretation - potential indicator for some pullbacks). Fear and Greed index Nutreal (personal interpretations - markets are not overbought or over sold and are to remain range bound with no significant down or upside risk). My momentum indicator still showing momentum towards the upside on the 2 hour chart.

Your Average Trader OP : My analysis in one sentence: short term upwards
trend with limited upside though + pullbacks coming up potentially next week.

Even though there are millions of indicators out there I highly recommend doing some research and finding ones that suit you the best. Just remember there are no magical indicator out there that can predict the future. But these indicators do help you manage your risk or help you make your decsison as to which side has the high probablity of winning. So Good luck!

Lastly just want to re iterate please use this as a reference/learning source and not as investment advice and sorry this was a little longer than I had expected

Your Average Trader OP sayno : Also i want to clearify. The reason why I say my suggestion is simply for reference is because I am very much against giving buy or sell advice especially in this particular case. I simply cannot manage your risk. I do not make trades like you so my suggestion is based on the asumption that i will make a bet like you did. So if im wromg I do not want to be the source of your loss. I simply want to help you undertand/learn about the markets and potentially allow you to make better decisions in the future. Again anything can happen tomorrow say some major seller realizes the drift away from fundimentals and comes in and starts crashing the market again or some major black swan incident can certainly happen and crash the markets again.

sayno : wow.. that's slot to digest! Thank u