Will business continue to be quiet until the results of the Bank of Japan meeting on the weekend are announced
Looking back on last week
“Determining profits on financial stocks takes precedence as interest rates rise once interest rates rise”
Last week's $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$It rose slightly to 38683.93 yen, an increase of 196.03 yen (+ 0.51%) on a weekly basis. US interest rate reduction observations were rekindled due to weak US employment-related indicators, $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$The United States rose as yields fell to 4.2% at one point. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$NASDAQ due to rising stocks $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$The fact that it hit an all-time high also underpinned Japanese stocks. Meanwhile, since the monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Japan is being held on 13-14, speculations about early monetary policy normalization by the Bank of Japan take precedence, and interest rates fluctuate up and down in the bond market. On the weekend, as the sense of caution against the Bank of Japan meeting intensified, the timing before the US employment statistics were announced was also added, so trading prices in the prime market remained in the 3.4 trillion yen range.
Note, there was a possibility that the year-to-date high price will be updated $TOPIX (.TOPIX.JP)$is $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$Ya $Honda Motor (7267.JP)$However, it declined due to type certification test fraud issues. Interest rate increases have also come to a standstill, and financial stocks have strengthened the trend of profit determination, so the upper price of TOPIX has also become heavier.
This week's outlook
“US interest rates will settle down after passing the FOMC...”
Last week's $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$The weekly price range was 688 yen, and it became a competitive market centered around the 38600 yen level where the 25-day moving average is located. This week, in addition to the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting on the weekend, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on 11-12, so looking at the results of the Japan-US central bank meeting, it will be difficult to handle aggressive trading. The FOMC results announcement and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference will be announced before dawn on the 13th Tokyo time, but this time, the market consensus is that “policy interest rates remain unchanged for 7 consecutive meetings” and “the number of interest rate cuts in 2024 was revised from 3 to 2 on the dot chart (distribution chart of policy interest rate levels).” According to the dot chart announced as of March, the number of interest rate cuts from 24 to 26 was expected to be 3 times each, and it is worth noting whether there will be a change in the number of interest rate cuts in 25 and 26 as 24 years are revised at this meeting. However, since there is a high possibility that the outlook for the year 25 and beyond will change depending on the data, I don't think it is a very important point of interest. At the press conference, since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is seen showing a basic stance such as “policy decisions depend on data,” it is expected that the US bond market, which had been moving up and down due to disappointment with economic indicators, will calm down due to FOMC passage.
“We are in a position where there is little sense of direction until the Bank of Japan meeting on the weekend”
At the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting, stories of those involved in considering long-term government bond purchase reductions, including the pros and cons of showing more specific policies, have already been conveyed, so some kind of announcement regarding government bond purchase reduction will be made. Meanwhile, regarding the implementation of additional interest rate increases, “July interest rate hike observations” were strengthened due to statements made by major financial institution executives at the end of May, and the yield on new 10-year government bonds, which is an indicator of long-term interest rates, rose to 1.100% on 5/30. Currently, it is below the 1.0% range, but since the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting is just around the corner, and speculations tend to intensify in the bond market, I would like to pay attention to trends in yield on new 10-year government bonds, which are indicators of long-term interest rates. Developments in the stock market looking at interest rate trends will continue until the weekend, and aggressive trading will be refrained, so the direction of the Nikkei Average and TOPIX will continue to be poor.
This week's featured stocks
$Lasertec (6920.JP)$Prime
Under a situation where the direction of large stocks is scarce, it seems likely that interest will easily be directed towards stocks with intense price movements. It plummeted due to the short sale fund report, but it is reluctant to decline because the company refuted it. I would like to assume a position where the rebound dominates with support from the April low and the 200-day moving average.
After a round of purchases due to the initial public offering, it plummeted, and last weekend it temporarily fell below 1000 yen. Since it is a recent IPO stock, it is a supply-demand investment rather than performance, but it is presumed that under circumstances where it is difficult to handle large stocks during Japan-US Central Bank Week, it is easy for interest centered on individual investors to reach the company. There is a large possibility of fluctuation, but I think it is interesting for short-term investments.
$K Pharma (4896.JP)$Groth
<190A>Chordia Therapeutics, which handles the development of cancer therapeutics targeting RNA-controlled stress, will go public on the 14th, and there is a possibility that one of the biotechnology-related brands will take action. <4894>The company wants to be aware of short-term progressive investment since interest is already growing due to Qualypse's rapid move.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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