USA PCE statistics are expected to show persistent inflation, supporting the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve.

November 24, 2024 17:30 JST

The consumer price index to be announced this week in the United States is expected to show persistent inflationary pressure and is likely to support the cautious stance of the US monetary authorities on future interest rate cuts.
In the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) statistics to be released on the 27th, the PCE core price index, which the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) emphasizes as an indicator to assess the underlying inflation, is expected to rise by 0.3% compared to the previous month in October, and by 2.8% compared to the same month last year, marking a significant increase since April.

Furthermore, the same statistics are expected to reveal robust household spending and stable income growth. Pre-inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures are expected to increase by 0.4% compared to the previous month, following a 0.5% increase the previous month. Personal income is expected to have increased by 0.3% for the second consecutive month.

Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 17 and 18, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for November will be released, while PCE data will be up to October.
The PCE statistics, to be released on the 27th just before Thanksgiving, are among a series of key US economic indicators that are most important for investors. On the same day, revised GDP figures for the third quarter (July-September), durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims for the week will also be announced.
Investors will be looking for hints in the FOMC minutes from the November 6-7 meeting, released on the 26th, to determine whether the US monetary authorities will proceed with three consecutive rate cuts next month.