教養チャンネル wrote a post · Dec 23, 2024 11:49

China A-REIT ETF Crisis in the 5th year: The key to rebuilding and remaining default risks.

Current background
Residential sales slump leads to profit decline, debt crisis continues.
Developer's dollar-denominated bond market in ruins, difficulty in raising new funds.
Expansion of impact on domestic and international markets such as Hong Kong.

Major Case Studies
CHINA VANKE: Liquidity crisis, default avoided with government intervention.
NEW WORLD DEV: Negotiating extension of bank loans and repayment deadlines.
Park View Group: Seeking fund security through asset sales.

Signs of recent stress
The sluggish sales of residences are putting pressure on the entire industry.
It is also affecting related industries such as Furniture and Automobiles.
The crisis of CHINA VANKE is undermining market confidence.

Government policies and their impact
Regulatory relaxation is slowing down the deterioration of the industry.
No progress in stimulating demand or restoring investor confidence.
Notable delays in improving the credit environment.

Default risks and market outlook
The default rate is decreasing, but there is a possibility of new defaults.
The bottom is expected to be hit in 1-2 years.
The market is becoming increasingly uncertain, leading to a decline in trust.

Challenges Ahead
The necessity of sustainable recovery measures for residential sales demand.
Implementation of specific measures to improve corporate funding environment.
Enhancing risk management domestically and internationally and improving transparency.

Conclusion
While the crisis continues, drastic deterioration can be avoided with government responses.
Key to fundamental recovery lies in demand stimulus measures and credit improvement.

【Educational Perspective】
It is speculated that the investment outlook is more favorable than before.
China's real estate crisis has entered its fifth year and remains in a serious situation.
Sluggish housing sales and difficulty in fundraising are putting pressure on developers' financial situation, leading to the collapse of the dollar-denominated bond market and liquidity crisis.
On the other hand, the rate of deterioration has slowed down due to government regulatory easing and support measures, but there has been no fundamental recovery in demand.
While the default rate is trending downward, the possibility of new defaults is expected to continue beyond next year.
The key to industry revitalization lies in policies that stimulate residential demand and improve funding environments.

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教養チャンネル

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