8.16 FPG Australian Dollar Trend Analysis

AUDUSD H4

Yesterday, after the July seasonal adjustment, Australia's unemployment rate recorded 4.2%, a new high since January 2022, exceeding expectations for two consecutive months. However, in terms of employment, the employment participation rate and employed population were better than expected, which also caused a very short-term decline, changing from decline to rise in less than a minute. In his speech this morning, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Australia said that some progress has been made in terms of inflation, but progress is very slow; it is too early to consider cutting interest rates, and there are no conditions for cutting interest rates in the near future. The economic outlook remains highly uncertain. Efforts are being made to restore the inflation rate to the target level within a reasonable time frame, while preserving as much as possible the gains made in the labour market over the past few years. Maintaining hawkish rhetoric has kept the market's expectations for the next session of the Australian Federal Reserve on hold. According to what has been said so far, there are only two major economies left in the world, the US and Australia, that have not cut interest rates this year, providing support to the Australian dollar to a certain extent.

On the technical side, employment data was released yesterday. After the Australian dollar fell to 0.656 in the short term, the price was quickly rejected and the price was pulled back, which meant that the bulls were extremely strong at this price. However, it did not break through yesterday's high during the day. It was blocked twice around 0.663, which is still in line with the previously mentioned short-term fluctuation of 0.656-0.664. Currently, there is no obvious one-sided approach.

The upper line resistance is 0.662, the second line resistance is 0.664, and the third line resistance is 0.666.

The lower first line supports 0.660, the second line supports 0.658, and the third line supports 0.656.