8.23 FPG gold trend analysis

XAUUSD H1

Last night, the US released a series of data. The initial value of S&P's global manufacturing PMI in August was 48 below the boom and dry line, a new low in 8 months. The service sector PMI recorded 55.2, which was higher than expected. Existing home sales increased for the first time in five months in July. In addition to the remarks made by Federal Reserve officials yesterday, the revised non-agricultural data did not change the view on policy. Interest rate cuts are expected to begin soon; the pace of interest rate cuts will be gradual. As long as there are no surprises in the data, it is necessary to start the process of cutting interest rates; the end of the easing cycle may keep the federal funds rate at about 3%; and the US unemployment rate may rise to slightly below 5%. The Federal Reserve's speech was gentle and gave feedback to the market that it would not cut interest rates by 50 BPs faster in September. This also caused the 50 BP rate cut expectations shown in CME data this morning to fall below 25% from 30% + yesterday. The US dollar index also rose as expectations of interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts weakened, rising from 101 to 101.5. The upward movement of the US dollar allowed the price of gold denominated in US dollars to decline. It declined from a high level of around 2515 to a minimum of 2471 during the day, and finally closed back above 2480.

On the technical side, yesterday morning's analysis and afternoon trading release all mentioned paying attention to gold's correction. After gold pulled back to the 2,500 position in early trading, it continued to decline in the evening in line with fundamental data, and quickly recovered at the 2480 position. Gold has now turned weak in the short term. Although it is still within the previous upward channel, the new trend line suppresses gold. At present, the 2480 position has opened a gap. The idea may need to be changed. We will continue to pay attention to the resistance brought about by the 2,500 top-bottom transition position. Powell's speech tonight will have a huge impact on gold in the short term.

The upper line resistance is 2494, the second line resistance is 2500, and the third line resistance is 2510.

The lower line supports 2485, the second line supports 2480, and the third line supports 2470.

# This advice is general and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investments involve risk, so be sure to evaluate them carefully. #