8.26 FPG Australian Dollar Trend Analysis

AUDUSD H4

Powell's speech on Friday evening sent a strong signal of interest rate cuts. The dovish statement once again heated up market expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 BP in September. According to data provided by CME this morning, the current market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 BP in September has risen to 36.5% from a lower than 25% forecast last week. The decline in the US dollar index to 100.6 hit a new low during the year. The Australian dollar was also blocked by rising to a high of around 0.680 during the year in line with the dollar's decline. Australia will release inflation data for July this Wednesday. The current forecast given by the market is that it will drop from the previous 3.8% inflation level to 3.4%. If the announced inflation value remains high, it will inevitably delay the market's interest rate cut point for the Australian Federal Reserve. Currently, the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost a foregone conclusion, and the increase in interest spread expectations has given more support to the Australian dollar.

On the technical side, the Australian dollar has absorbed all the losses since mid-July and once again reached the highest position of around 0.680 during the year, focusing on 0.680 resistance, which may be adjusted in the short term, with 0.675 support below. The trend remains the same.

The upper first line resistance is 0.680, the second line resistance is 0.682, and the third line resistance is 0.684.

The lower first line supports 0.677, the second line supports 0.675, and the third line supports 0.673.

# This advice is general and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investments involve risk, so be sure to evaluate them carefully. #