8.30 FPG Gold Trend Analysis

XAUUSD H4

The release of the last inflation transcript before the possible US interest rate cut is getting closer, and the market is starting to be cautious, with both long and short sides tugging. In 2022, in order to combat inflation, the United States took the lead in starting an interest rate hike cycle, forcing other major central banks to follow suit and raise interest rates. Now, there is less than 20 days left before the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision. According to CME data, the probability of an emergency interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 34%, and the probability of a soft landing interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 66%. Tonight will be the last release of the core PCE price index inflation data before the September Fed interest rate decision. Also, last night, the United States announced two better-than-expected data: the number of initial jobless claims was slightly better than expected, and the GDP growth rate was revised to 3%, better than the market's expected 208%. In terms of geopolitics, Israel and Hamas agreed to a temporary ceasefire for children to be vaccinated. Tonight at 22:30 AET, the core PCE price index annual rate will be announced, which will have a significant impact on gold in the short term.

Technically, gold has ended its previous upward channel and started to oscillate. Gold rose to around 2525 in the morning session but was resisted, and with a series of better-than-expected US data, the dollar continued to rise, causing gold to decline. The gold price fell to around 2503, found support, and quickly surged to near historic highs. Currently, 2529-2531 is a major historical resistance level for gold, with four unsuccessful attempts to break through in the past eight trading days. However, the lower point has gradually started to rise, forming a slowly converging trend, with a possible breakout when the PCE data is released tonight. The focus is on the historical high resistance above and the support of the lower trendline below.

The first resistance level above is 2520, the second resistance level is 2525, and the third resistance level is 2531.

The first support level below is 2510, the second support level is 2505, and the third support level is 2500.

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