9:30 FPG Australian dollar trend analysis

AUDUSD H4

After the release of PCE data in the USA, the USD index declined in the short term, further boosting the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar hit a new high of 0.6937 for the year before falling back to 0.69. The main reason supporting the Australian dollar's rise is still the interest rate differential between the Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Last week, the RBA announced interest rate decisions and CPI data. Although the monthly CPI data fell to the Fed's rate cut target level, RBA Chairman continued to indicate no rate cut in the near term, providing strong support for the Australian dollar. As the Reserve Bank of Australia, the last central bank to adjust rates this year, the main reason is still that quarterly inflation has not reached the Fed's target level. Historically, the RBA rarely cuts rates when core inflation is outside the target range. The focus is on the release of third quarter CPI data a month from now, which if falls to the RBA's target range of 2%-3%, may lead the RBA to start its rate cut cycle this year.

Technically, the Australian dollar remains strong, continuing its three-week uptrend oscillation. After a deep retracement to the 0.682 level and a rebound on the trendline, the price stabilized and moved back above the 0.687 level within the week. In the short term, these two levels have become important supports for the Australian dollar, maintaining its upward momentum above these levels.

Upper resistance line at 0.692, second resistance line at 0.694, third resistance line at 0.696.

The first-line support is at 0.690, the second-line support is at 0.688, and the third-line support is at 0.687.

# This advice is general in nature and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please be sure to evaluate carefully. #