9:30 FPG Australian dollar trend analysis

AUDUSD H4

After the release of PCE data in the USA, the usd short-term downward trend further boosted the australian dollar. The australian dollar hit a new high of 0.6937 for the year before falling back to 0.69. The main reason supporting the australian dollar's rise is still the interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Last week, the RBA announced its interest rate decision and CPI data. Although the monthly CPI data fell to the Fed's rate cut target, RBA Chairman continued to indicate that there will be no rate cut in the near future, providing greater support for the australian dollar. Australia, as the last major central bank to adjust interest rates this year, still mainly due to quarterly inflation not reaching the Fed's target level. Historically, the RBA rarely cuts rates outside the target range when core inflation reaches the target. Focus on the release of CPI data for the third quarter one month later. If this data falls to the RBA's target range of 2%-3%, the RBA may start its rate cut cycle within the year.

Technically, the australian dollar remains strong, continuing the three-week upward trend and oscillating upwards. After a deep retracement to the 0.682 level and a retest of the trendlines, the price stabilized and moved higher during the week, re-establishing itself above the 0.687 level. In the short term, these two levels have become important support levels for the australian dollar. The australian dollar maintains upward momentum above these two levels.

The upper resistance levels are 0.692, 0.694, and 0.696.

The first-line support is at 0.690, the second-line support is at 0.688, and the third-line support is at 0.687.

# This advice is general in nature and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investing involves risks, so please evaluate carefully. #