Analysis of the gold trend on September 30th by FPG

XAUUSD H1

Last Friday, the USA released the latest PCE inflation data. The August PCE data recorded 2.2%, lower than expected and very close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The core PCE came in at 2.7%, meeting expectations (Core PCE excludes volatile food and energy). After the data was released, the USD index broke through the previous low point, hitting the lowest level since July last year. According to CME data, the expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut for the November Fed rate decision is still higher than the expectation for a 25 basis point cut. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reduced its holdings by 5.18 tons, marking the second reduction since August 23, with the first reduction being only 0.27 tons. Gold also started a round of pullback on Friday, breaking below the 2650 level in the short term, touching a low of 2643, and finally closing near 2660. This week will see the release of the most impactful non-farm payrolls data for gold, as well as speeches from Fed policymakers, which will have a significant short-term impact on gold.

Technically, gold closed lower on Friday, marking the largest decline since September 18 after breaking above 2600. It fell by $10. After hitting a historic high on Thursday, the high point on Friday kept moving downwards, bringing the price back within the previous 4-week uptrend channel. The upper boundary of the uptrend channel might become a short-term support-resistance interchange position for gold. The overall trend remains oscillating upwards, but there may be a need for short-term pullbacks. Caution is advised against chasing long positions and be wary of top reversals.

The upper resistance levels are 2670, 2675, and 2685.

The lower support levels are 2655, 2650, and 2643.

# This advice is general in nature and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please be sure to evaluate carefully. #