9.5 FPG Australian dollar trend analysis

AUDUSD H4

Yesterday, australia released the GDP for the second quarter, and the data showed that the GDP for the entire second quarter of australia was only 1%, which, while in line with expectations, was lower than the previous value. Historical data shows that australia's overall GDP has been decreasing since the third quarter of 2022, reflecting the suppression of the overall economy by the high interest rate environment since the increase in the australian dollar. In addition, the current account data released the day before still showed a deficit for the export-oriented country, indicating a lack of confidence in the australian dollar in the market. At present, the Reserve Bank of australia faces a dilemma of both controlling inflation and rescuing the economy. However, recent public statements by the Reserve Bank of australia indicate that controlling inflation is still the primary goal. In the absence of a clear decline in inflation and with the GDP meeting expectations, it will be difficult for the Reserve Bank of australia to mention the prospect of a rate cut. According to expectations, the Reserve Bank of australia may become the latest central bank to adjust its interest rate policies in the near future, to some extent providing support for the australian dollar.

Technically, the australian dollar began to decline yesterday, with a 1.6% decline over the past two trading days, reaching around 0.668 before stopping the decline and rebounding. The attempt to backtest the 0.675 price was directly rejected, and it is currently fluctuating in the range of 0.668-0.675. The daily chart closed with long upper and lower shadows, indicating that both bulls and bears are in a standoff. The focus is on the trend in this range. The australian dollar has now ended its strong rise and high-level oscillation since August, and is beginning to decline to choose the next direction. If the australian dollar stabilizes above 0.675, it may have the ability to reach new highs again; if it falls below 0.668, it may return to the fluctuation range of May. Pay attention to the non-farm employment data in the next two days, as it will have a significant impact on the australian dollar in the short term.

Upper resistance levels are at 0.670, 0.671, and 0.673.

The first support below is at 0.671, the second support at 0.670, and the third support at 0.668.

# This recommendation is general in nature and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please evaluate carefully. #