Tesla Q2 deliveries dropped Y/Y while stock flies

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Elias Chen joined discussion · Jul 6, 2024 18:26

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: At this stage, all of the top ten financial institutions in the United States have invested in Tesla; and there is no such thing as a fight between fairies (although there are fights between lesser fairies). The decline is a disguised big gift package. Tesla's main uptrend has already begun, and there is no technical and fundamental basis to put short sell on Tesla. After several rounds of competition and game in the range of 253.780-246.520 (with 251.140 as the midpoint), it will be reoccupied by new buying pressure. If this area fails to stop the stock price from falling, the stock price will find support at 235.010 and rebound. Tesla's weekly chart KD golden cross is climbing, and it is aiming for the first resistance at 267.190. Only when Tesla's bull market truly arrives can the stock price challenge its historical high of 414.49 after the split. When it was difficult at 138.800, 160.510, and 167.410, we all made it through. How could a rise isolation belt of 253.780-246.520 stop the steel tide of Tesla's stock price? There will be another wave of upward momentum to impact the range of 280.000-300.000 at least before August 8th. If the macro is clear and the micro is still hazy, it's time to take action: Ten years later, you may...🔔: At present, all of the top ten financial institutions in the USA have invested in Tesla; and there is no such thing as 'a fight between immortals' (though there may still be fights between minor immortals). The decline is like a disguised big gift package. The main uptrend of Tesla has already begun, and putting options to short sell Tesla is not supported by technical and fundamental factors. After several rounds of competition in the range of 253.780–246.520 (with 251.140 as the median), new bid forces will recapture the area after fierce battles. If this area cannot stop the stock price from falling, then the price will find support at 235.010 and rebound, with Tesla's weekly chart showing a bullish trend with the KD golden cross approaching the high point of 267.190, marking the true arrival of a bull market for Tesla. Stock price fluctuations will aim for Tesla's historical high price after the split, 414.49. In the difficult times of 138.800, 160.510, and 167.410, we have all come a long way. How can a rising isolation belt between 253.780–246.520 resist the strong steel tide pushing Tesla's stock price forward? At least there will be another wave of momentum hitting the 280.000–300.000 range before August 8th. If the macro outlook is clear but the micro view remains hazy, it's time to act: in ten years, you may become a figure, or you may become worthless. It all depends on your actions today.Elon Musk warns:Once Tesla completely solves the issue of autonomous driving and mass produces the towering column robots, anyone still holding short positions will be eliminated, even Bill Gates. Do you have confidence? When you have eyes, you should see; when you have ears, you should listen.Do you have confidence? When you have eyes, you should see; when you have ears, you should listen.

1. Emphasize the importance of correct values, mental health, and a stable mindset in investment trading.

2. Trust people, don't doubt them; doubt stocks, don't invest. Elon Musk is an angel sent by God, a genius academician of the USA Engineering Academy, an outstanding physics valedictorian, and an excellent software architect. He has said: Once Tesla completely solves the issue of autonomous driving and mass produces towering column robots, anyone still holding short positions will be eliminated, even Bill Gates. If you only focus on his other negative aspects, or even believe that Elon Musk is not worthy of your trust and that you are better than him, then Elias=Jerome must ask you, why are you investing in Tesla? Why go through all this trouble? The only way to make a lot of money in a big fluctuation with firm belief, rather than short-term technical analysis skills. Elias=Jerome has gradually built positions around the important bottoms of 138.800, 160.510, and 167.410. After establishing the positions, the stock price dropped again, trapping all the established long positions, creating huge floating losses. It must be admitted that Elias=Jerome has also wavered, regretting not engaging in short-term arbitrage trading, including short-term arbitrage trading. Because all positions were bought when the stock price was falling, there was some initial profit. Elias=Jerome makes investment trades by establishing mathematical models and conducting quantitative analysis at the function level. In terms of short-term trends and short-term trends alone, the accuracy is still relatively high and satisfactory. In those dark days, it was all about getting through with firm belief. Elias=Jerome divides positions into two parts: 60% for long-term holdings, and 40% for short-term trends, including short-term trend arbitrage. At that time, due to being very optimistic about Tesla's prospects and lack of understanding of the leading positions in short selling by small and large brokerage firms (at that time not knowing they were short selling), when successful in short-term selling and short-term closing arbitrage, due to too hasty and quick supplementary position defense, inadequate funding and risk control resulted in the supplementary position defense being trapped by ruthless short selling, causing floating losses. Subsequently, the protective funding was severely insufficient, forcing the use of a portion of financing amount belonging to the brokerage, only to find that the interest on this part was quite high, calculated on a daily basis, including Saturdays, Sundays, and public holidays. Fortunately, all of Elias=Jerome's stock investments were in the underlying stocks, with only a small amount used to hedge long positions with put options. There was hardly any pressure to add margin from the brokerage. During the Tesla stock rise to the 198.870–205.600 phase, some relatively rational operations were done with the aim of reducing positions to realize some floating profits, used to rebuild and expand protective funding reserves. At that time, everything felt wonderful, breathing a sigh of relief, not betraying the initial hard work and mission. However, looking back now, if the positions and risk control were appropriate from the start, not too quickly in defense, there would be no funding shortage, no need to use the original financing funds from the brokerage, and no need to reduce positions to realize some profits at the 198.870–205.600 stage, just directly holding until August 8th to realize some profits from Robot taxis (30%), then the profit would have been on a completely different scale.

3. Things are often multidimensional, spatial, and three-dimensional. Let's not be extreme, let's look at things correctly. Tesla's stock price has risen a lot from the lowest 138.800 to 253.780, but if you look closely, you will see that in the weekly chart, the MACD fast line is still below the 0 axis, and the proportion of profit-taking chips is 100%. It is inevitable that the stock price will experience a pullback decline, and the medium to long-term rise in stock price is far from over.

4. Anyone, including the late outstanding mathematician, investor, and philanthropist James Harris Simons, who triumphed over the stock god Warren Edward Buffett and the financial giant George Soros for 27 consecutive years, believes that God has set two limits on the wealth mountain of the financial market: the 'uncertainty principle' and the 'spatial orientation obstacle principle'. Humans can only get infinitely close, but cannot reach.

Financial history big data shows that short-term speculation can never make big money (people are easily trapped in short-term or short-term trend speculation without realizing it), only long-term investment that spans time can achieve a grand blueprint vision. Being bullish and avoiding bearish is the fatal blow for most people.

If:

A. If you are a long-term investor in Tesla, you don't have to worry too much and can completely ignore the current corrective decline, and remain unchanged to adapt to any changes.

B. If you want to challenge yourself, you can divide your position into two parts: 60% long-term hold and 40% speculative trading.

C. If you are a trader who adopts the all-out defense strategy, the operational difficulty is extremely high and the probability of making mistakes is very high. By focusing too much on short-term trends, you may even miss the opportunity to build a position at a relatively low level, leading to inaccurate predictions.

D. If you attempt to both long and short, and ultimately try to win on both sides, you will be restricted and sanctioned by the constraints of inaccurate predictions and directional obstacles. If you are bearish on Tesla and want to short sell Tesla, the probability of making mistakes and losing money is very high.

6. Predicting is a difficult problem, the most crucial thing is to have various contingency plans with equipped protective funds and battle sequences.

7. In the future market, there is a high probability of a brief rise followed by a fall. The phase bottom range is 246.520–242.460; if this range cannot stop the stock price from falling, the stock price will find support at 235.010 and rebound, aiming at the historical high price of 414.49 after Tesla's split. The flood discharge zone after expanding the definition domain is 230.500–216.250 (with a low probability, but contingency plans and psychological preparations should be made). The position range for building a position is 246.520–244.300–242.460. All problems are ultimately a function of time, and controlling it in one's own hands is the key to winning. When you have enough margin for error and psychological preparation, you can break free from the constraints of short-term trends and short-term trends on yourself.

Tesla is a high-tech growth stock worth investing in and holding for the long term, with a very bright future. Don't be swayed by the stock price's temporary decline, which is limited in magnitude. The maximum intraday decline amount is approximately: 5.00-11.32. There will be strong buyers competing for it soon. Air combat missiles rely too much on infrared characteristics and lack Artificial Intelligence, making them easily deceived by disguised objects with obvious infrared characteristics. Financial investment trading game is no different.

Vanguard and Dafu are the mainstays of increasing positions and expanding shares.

When you can coexist with uncertainty, infinite possibilities unfold in life. In fact, getting rich is a bastard's choice, but in today's society, not getting rich is even worse than being a bastard. Doing what you love will not make you rich, but doing what others don't want to do will make you rich. Extra effort will surely bring unexpected gains and gradually become a belief that is bound to succeed, a spirit of perseverance. These will become inexhaustible intangible assets in the investment process. If you want different results from ordinary people, you must put in different efforts than ordinary people, which ordinary people will never understand, because it is not in their nature to be at a disadvantage. Ordinary people think and act based on this mindset, which also means they are destined to have no prospects. Low-level desires can be obtained through indulgence; high-level desires can be obtained through self-discipline; top-level desires can only be obtained through suffering. Some people can't even be taught hand in hand. Besides intelligence, courage, and basic knowledge of math and science, the most important thing is that people don't trust you. But this is right, we don't know each other, so why should you trust me? If you don't understand the concept of "giving charcoal in the snow" and only excel at "adding flowers to brocade", you will not have good results for a period of time. Stocks also have spirituality.

JC=Elias Family Trading Battle Iron Law (no matter how much emphasis is placed):

Win in a bear market; win in volatility; win in courage; win in wisdom; win in magnanimity; win in learning; win in change; win in adaptation; win in mathematics; win in physics; win in models; win in functions; win in vibration; win in quantification; win in framework; win in moderation; win in probability; win in technology; win in psychology; win in nimbleness; win in adaptability; win in oscillation; win in the long term; win in investment; win in mentality; win in fault tolerance.

Lose in being closed; lose in self; lose in fixation; lose in giving up; lose in self-deception; lose in chasing highs; lose in chasing strength; lose in rushing highs; lose in stagnant rise; lose in one-directional; lose in gambling; lose in defending positions; lose in full positions; lose in financing; lose in liquidation; lose in perpetual motion; lose in gambling; lose in complaining; lose in making excuses; lose in cursing; lose in dreaming; lose in proposals; lose in forecasts; lose in short-term; lose in impatience; lose in greed; lose in mentality.

98% of people can never break free from liking rises and hating falls, and predictions, without fighting sequences supported by a certain proportion of position-holding funds as a strong and powerful backing. Therefore, 98% of people can only end in failure. Trading is for a living, not for being a stock slave, not for fighting viewpoints (JC does not engage in viewpoint battles, not interested.), but for investing and trading to win.

Alarm bell: In the first and last chapters of the book of wisdom, it is written 'There is no free lunch in the world.' Don't expect to make money without putting in effort by relying on others' post-market chart analysis. Here, at this moment, all of JC's posts are personal expressions before, during, and after trading, research exploration, without emotional viewpoints battles, stock recommendations, or motivational anecdotes, and cannot be used as the basis for trading. The resulting trading profits or losses are solely one's own responsibility, regardless of gains or losses.

We were originally strangers, not to mention that even if you are capable in finance, in this money-playing financial market, it is very easy for people to think of you as a scammer. Therefore, JC will not use research results as a vehicle to give away money for free, because it is not necessary. Are there any true friends in the financial market? Everyone goes their own way, minds their own business, and stands firm with no desire. JC doesn't owe you anything, doesn't follow your lead, and doesn't have to cater to you. Except for Jesus Christ (who is actually God, the Holy Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirit, the Holy Trinity), JC is afraid of no one.

Disclaimer: There are many crazy people in the securities market, so it's best to make things clear. This article is a private trading diary, not a viewpoint or individual stock recommendation. This is the robust mechanism of the American securities market, not the A-share securities market. The blogger has a long-term trading style. However, under special circumstances, such as when the overall market is particularly good and the proportion of profit-chip ratio exceeds 80-90% for a long time, the blogger will choose to sell and close positions (in part) to cash in on floating profits. When the overall market and individual stocks are not good, especially when they are extremely weak, such as when the proportion of profit-chip ratio is below 21-7%, JC will choose to gradually and batch-wise discretely lay out positions as a discrete random variable. Therefore, ordinary traders should not imitate this operation.

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104842512 : Enjoy reading your post everytime!
Thanks for the sharing! feeling blessed.
I forward/share your post a few timed without ask your permission. I share it because I want to read it back someday.

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Elias Chen OP : My pleasure,my pleasure.

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104842512 Elias Chen OP : Gans En

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Elias Chen OP : Thank you for your generosity.

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Elias Chen

成熟投资者：格局，概率，取舍。没有格局必然急功近利。不计概率会把运气当技术。不懂取舍，有所不为，最后必落入陷阱和圈套。

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