Angle: Is the reverse yield on US bonds heading towards resolution, this time effective as an indicator of recession

July 30, 2024 at 6:52 PM GMT+9 (some excerpts)

The long and short yield reversal (reverse yield) of US bonds, which is regarded as a signal of economic recession, is the longest and largest ever, but there is a possibility that resolution is approaching.
According to Deutsche Bank, this reverse yield phenomenon always preceded 9 of the 10 recessions that occurred in its 70-year history. However, now, optimism is spreading that the US economy can avoid long-term pain, and there are also voices questioning the reliability of reverse yield as a sign of economic recession.
Ozark's chief market strategist Phil Blancart said, “There is no recession in sight at this stage. I think this is a very different situation,” he said.