Are Nikkei, SP500, and Nasdaq all rebounding!
First, I've summarized the current crash and how the decline will stop, so please take a look at it
From YouTube
Characteristics of former President Trump's economic policy
・Tax cuts: Implement corporate tax and income tax cuts to stimulate the economic activity of companies and individuals.
・Monetary easing: Demand interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and promote economic stimulus measures.
・Reviewing trade relationships: Change tariff policies with China and other trade partners to reduce trade deficits.
・Demand an increase in military spending from allies: Call on NATO countries and Japan to increase defense spending.
・Denial of excessive global warming concerns: Relaxation of environmental regulations, such as withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
The impact of Trump's policies on the market
・Dominance of domestic demand stocks: Domestic demand-related stocks (banks, construction, real estate, etc.) have risen due to policies that stimulate domestic demand.
・Impact on export stocks: Export-related stocks are negatively affected due to a review of trade relations and the impact of the appreciation of the dollar.
Impact on Japanese stocks
・Advantages of small and medium growth stocks: There are many domestic demand-related stocks in Japanese small and medium cap stocks, and it is easy to benefit from Trump's policy.
・Advantages of small and medium growth stocks: There are many domestic demand-related stocks in Japanese small and medium cap stocks, and it is easy to benefit from Trump's policy.
・Target Sectors: Domestic demand-related (banking/construction/real estate), energy, and defense-related stocks are attracting attention.
Factors that changed the depreciation of the yen to the appreciation of the yen
① Increase in indicators of economic slowdown: Interest rate cuts in September are certain.
② Bank of Japan Interest Rate Hike Potential: Interest rates are expected to rise by the end of the year.
③ Government/Bank of Japan Exchange Interventions: There is a possibility that exchange intervention was implemented on 7/11.
④ Trump's Influence: The spread of Mr. Trump's idea that “a strong dollar is a problem.”
Status of US stocks
・Slowing economy and slowing inflation: U.S. stocks are strong even though interest rates are expected to be cut in September due to a slowdown in the economy.
・Slowing economy and slowing inflation: U.S. stocks are strong even though interest rates are expected to be cut in September due to a slowdown in the economy.
・Trump Rally: As Trump's chances of re-election increase, related stocks (energy and military stocks, etc.) have risen.
・Profit-taking sales: Profit-taking sales increased due to awareness of a sense of overheating in US stocks.
Trends related to generative AI
・Increase in profit-taking sales: There was a temporary increase in profit-taking sales for the main stocks related to generative AI.
The sense of level of the Nikkei Stock Average
・Current sense of high value: The Nikkei Stock Average is 41,580 yen, and the reasonable range is judged to be around 32,000 to 37,500 yen.
・Future outlook: Careful investment decisions are necessary while keeping a close eye on upward revisions in earnings and trends in depreciation of the yen.
Foreign investor trends
・Japanese stock repurchase: In fiscal 2023, the overpurchase of Japanese stocks by non-residents was 7 trillion754.1 billion yen.
・Trend following fund movements: There is a possibility that the transition from Japan to the US will progress as the performance of US stocks improves.
S&P 500 outlook
・Goals for the end of 2024: Raise the S&P 500's year-end target to 5,700 points.
・Possibility of interest rate cuts: The probability that interest rate cuts will begin has increased, and there is room for stock prices to rise.
・Benefits of small and medium stocks: In an environment where interest rates fall, small and medium-sized stocks benefit the most from interest rate cuts.
Key points for investment decisions
・Trends in upward revisions to earnings and depreciation of yen: Since there is a high possibility that stock prices will move at a high level, it is necessary to closely monitor trends in upward revisions to earnings and depreciation of yen.
S&P 500 Equal Weight Index
・Attention to the Equal Index: Consider ETFs linked to the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index as an investment option.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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