At a point where the flow of money is stagnant due to the tense situation in the Middle East

The Nikkei Average fell sharply last week to 37,68.35 yen (-6.21%), weakening by 2455.20 yen (-6.21%) per week. Weakness in the US market, such as the NASDAQ, put downward pressure on Japanese stocks, and the situation was severe throughout the week. The depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollar progressed from speculation that interest rate differences between Japan and the US would widen until the latter half of the 154 yen range per dollar. There was a tailwind for export-related stocks, but aggressive purchases were refrained in the stock market due to heightened sense of caution against implementing yen buying intervention by the government and the Bank of Japan.

The fact that there were no financial results for ASML Holding, a Dutch semiconductor lithography equipment that attracted attention, and that TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor contract manufacturer in Taiwan, lowered the overall growth forecast for the semiconductor market in 24 slightly lower than before, etc., and semiconductor stocks around the world depreciated drastically. While semiconductor stocks completely collapsed in the Tokyo market over the weekend, news such as “explosions at multiple locations in Iran” spread, and investor sentiment worsened further. In response to the complete depreciation of semiconductor stocks and the tense situation in the Middle East, the Nikkei Average temporarily split 37,000 yen since 2/9.

In the US stock market last weekend, the Dow average rose 211.02 dollars (+0.56%) to 37986.40 dollars, but the NASDAQ continued to be in a tough position with 319.49 points lower (-2.05%) at 15282.01 and the S&P 500 falling 43.89 points (-0.88%) at 4967.23.

The daily chart of the Nikkei Average formed a double top by breaking the 3/12 low of 38271.38 yen between the two mountains of the 3/7 high of 40472.11 yen and the 3/22 high price of 41087.75 yen. After breaking through the 3/12 low of 38271.38 yen, which is the neckline, on the 17th, the decline intensified, and it also fell below the 75-day moving average level of 37889 yen. Since the downward deviation rate with the 25th moving average exceeded 7% when it fell over 1300 yen on the 19th, it seems that people are aware of the short-term sense of overselling. <8035><6146>However, since investment judgment downgrade observations for semiconductor stocks Tokyo Electron and Disco were also reported last weekend, there is a possibility that the Nikkei Average will depreciate one level if adjustments in semiconductor stocks are prolonged. Since financial results announcements will gradually increase starting this week, individual searches will take center stage rather than the index as a whole.

The exchange rate is hovering in the 154 yen range per dollar. Although the sense of caution against yen buying intervention by the government and the Bank of Japan is extremely high, the spotlight is on the uncertain factor of the tense situation in the Middle East, and speculators are also strengthening their wait-and-see mood, so the acceleration in depreciation of the yen seems to stop. Since the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting will be held on 25-26 this weekend, various speculations are likely to rise, but Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo stated in Washington over the weekend that “if the underlying rise in prices continues, there is a very high possibility that interest rates will be raised.” Since they made a similar statement on 4/10 saying “if the underlying price greatly exceeds 2%, there is a possibility that interest rate hikes will be necessary,” this meeting will not be given much importance. First, I think the mood to determine the situation in the Middle East will intensify.

Meanwhile, speculators' yen selling positions as of 4/16 have accumulated 165,619 cards (an increase of 3468 compared to the previous week) and yen depreciation positions since 2007 (about 180,000), so when speculators move to resolve positions, the trend of yen appreciation and dollar depreciation will accelerate. Since the acceleration in yen appreciation weighs on export-related stocks, it is necessary to be careful that the situation looking at the exchange market related to the Middle East situation is a factor that makes people refrain from aggressive push buying.

Financial results are due to be announced on the 23rd. Structural reforms in EV-related businesses are underway, and it seems that it will be an important financial results announcement in confirming the situation. Since they haven't been bought much since the beginning of the year, the current decline is also limited.

It is also a major regional bank group based in Niigata Prefecture. PBR is in the 0.4 times range, and there is a strong sense of undervaluation, and I think bank stocks are prone to speculation in preparation for the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting this weekend.

Since there was a retrograde high last weekend, there is a risk of fluctuation, but it is assumed that speculation is likely to increase since financial results are being announced on the 26th. While the overall situation is poor, I think it is easy to go shopping that focuses on the lightness of price movements.