"The key to the August US employment statistics - the extent of the FRB's interest rate cuts and the direction of the market."
★ Market outlook and speculation
① The number of non-farm payroll employees in August is expected to increase by 0.165 million compared to the previous month, recovering from the 0.114 million increase in July.
It is expected that the unemployment rate will improve from 4.3% to 4.2%, indicating the resilience of the labor market.
If the recovery of the labor market is confirmed, it is highly likely to give the market a sense of stability in the US economy.
It is expected that the Fed will lower interest rates at the September FOMC meeting, but the extent of the rate cut will depend on the employment statistics.
Investors are expecting a normal rate cut of 0.25 percentage points or a substantial rate cut of 0.5 percentage points, and are paying attention to the results of the employment statistics.
If the employment statistics are as expected, there is a high possibility that the Fed will limit the rate cut to 0.25 percentage points, while a rate cut of 0.5 percentage points would become realistic if the labor market shows a significant deterioration.
If the employment statistics exceed market expectations, it is likely to strengthen the dollar and be a positive factor for the stock market, but if the statistics fall short of expectations, there is a possibility of a weaker dollar.
The bond market may experience yield fluctuations depending on the extent of the rate cut, and there is a possibility of a shift to safe assets depending on the results of the employment statistics.
The Fed will maintain a data-dependent stance and carefully assess the balance between the labor market and inflation.
★Consideration of education
The employment statistics for August will be a major point in determining how the US economy will move.
It is expected that the number of employers will recover and the unemployment rate will also improve. This will determine how much the FRB will cut interest rates.
In the market, a cut in interest rates of 0.25 or 0.5 points is expected, and the results will have an impact on the dollar, stocks, and bond markets.
In short, the future monetary policy and market movements will be influenced by the strength of the labor market.
It is important to take a risk-off stance.
① The number of non-farm payroll employees in August is expected to increase by 0.165 million compared to the previous month, recovering from the 0.114 million increase in July.
It is expected that the unemployment rate will improve from 4.3% to 4.2%, indicating the resilience of the labor market.
If the recovery of the labor market is confirmed, it is highly likely to give the market a sense of stability in the US economy.
It is expected that the Fed will lower interest rates at the September FOMC meeting, but the extent of the rate cut will depend on the employment statistics.
Investors are expecting a normal rate cut of 0.25 percentage points or a substantial rate cut of 0.5 percentage points, and are paying attention to the results of the employment statistics.
If the employment statistics are as expected, there is a high possibility that the Fed will limit the rate cut to 0.25 percentage points, while a rate cut of 0.5 percentage points would become realistic if the labor market shows a significant deterioration.
If the employment statistics exceed market expectations, it is likely to strengthen the dollar and be a positive factor for the stock market, but if the statistics fall short of expectations, there is a possibility of a weaker dollar.
The bond market may experience yield fluctuations depending on the extent of the rate cut, and there is a possibility of a shift to safe assets depending on the results of the employment statistics.
The Fed will maintain a data-dependent stance and carefully assess the balance between the labor market and inflation.
★Consideration of education
The employment statistics for August will be a major point in determining how the US economy will move.
It is expected that the number of employers will recover and the unemployment rate will also improve. This will determine how much the FRB will cut interest rates.
In the market, a cut in interest rates of 0.25 or 0.5 points is expected, and the results will have an impact on the dollar, stocks, and bond markets.
In short, the future monetary policy and market movements will be influenced by the strength of the labor market.
It is important to take a risk-off stance.
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