Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's Closing Review: Impact on Markets
“Economic points understood in 1 minute”
1. hawkish signals and market turmoil
Governor Ueda's hawkish remarks caused global stock price declines at the beginning of this month, and funds of 6 trillion 400 billion dollars disappeared from the market.
The rebound in yen carry trade progressed, leading to an appreciation of the yen and a sharp drop in the Nikkei Stock Average.
2. Background of the review during the closing session
An unusual examination held even though the regular Diet session is closed.
Market turmoil after the interest rate hike decision on July 31 raised concerns among members of parliament.
Political pressure is heightened by Prime Minister Kishida's statement that he will not run for the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election.
3. Statement Risk and Market Expectations
Governor Ueda was criticized for not having a sense of crisis over the rapid depreciation of the yen in the past.
Cautious statements are expected this time as well, but it is unlikely that they will emphasize the dovish message.
The market faces the risk of yen appreciation pressure and falling stock prices.
4. Interaction between markets and politics
Depending on what Governor Ueda says, there is a risk that it will cause market turmoil again.
In order to stabilize the market while securing political trust, it is necessary to pay close attention to the tone of speech.
There are concerns about the gap between the timing of additional interest rate hikes and market expectations.
5. Policy comparison with the Federal Reserve
It is compared to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting.
As the Fed continues its interest rate hike cycle, the Bank of Japan's response will have an impact on the exchange market and fund flows.
6. conclusions
Governor Ueda's remarks will have a big impact on future yen exchange rates and stock market trends.
Market participants pay attention to statements and are wary of yen carry trade and stock price trends.
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