Be wary of 1 dollar = mid-157 yen, yen sales rewind
The yen exchange rate is moving in the middle of the $1 = 157 yen range. It has been almost flat since last weekend, and President Biden's announcement of withdrawal from the US presidential election has not had a significant impact on the market. One reason for this is that there were no surprises with Biden's withdrawal.
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✔️ Effects of system failure
A global system failure occurred last weekend, and there were concerns about financial and traffic disruptions. The yen temporarily surged as a result of this, but then it returned to the middle of the 157 yen range. The risk aversion movement encouraged purchases of yen and dollars, and the impact was limited to the short term.
✔️ Buying in dollars and selling in yen for actual demand
There is an expectation that importing companies will continue to sell yen and buy dollars. Japanese companies are buying dollars to control import costs. In particular, import demand is expected to increase due to seasonal factors, and it is thought that actual dollar purchases will continue.
✔️ Dissolution of yen carry transactions The volatility index for US stocks is rising, and there are concerns that the risk environment will deteriorate. Therefore, there is a possibility that yen carry transactions where high-interest currency is bought by selling yen with low interest rates will be resolved. The rise in volatility indicates market uncertainty, and investors are increasingly buying yen to avoid risk.
✔️ Changes in yen selling positions in the non-commercial sector
According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the non-commercial sector's yen selling positions have declined drastically. This is because intervention observations by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan have had an impact, and the reversal of yen sales positions is progressing. Also, there are times when US interest rate cuts are increasing, and changes have occurred in the dollar buying trend.
✔️ Summary
The yen exchange rate is influenced by many factors. There was a temporary shock such as President Biden's withdrawal announcement and system failure, but the exchange rate has stabilized due to the combination of dollar purchases of actual demand, cancellation of yen carry transactions, and position changes in the non-commercial sector. It is necessary to keep a close eye on market trends in the future.
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