Breaking News: Biden Visits Israel
● Visit to Israel
It was announced that US President Biden will visit Israel, which engages with the Islamic organization Hamas, on the 18th. Based on Prime Minister Netanyahu's invitation, it is clear that the United States will support Israel, which is an ally.
→There is a possibility that the intensification of the war will be suppressed and that it will stop once and for all. Until now, crude oil has been growing rapidly, but I think this is also a form (rotation) where funds flow back into the dollar due to the decline.
● NZ dollar
The ruling party lost in the weekend's general election. First change of government in 6 years. The new administration will focus on responding to inflation (raising interest rates).
→For the exchange market, NZ dollars are a purchase material. The Australian dollar has also risen, contributing to the dollar's appreciation at the beginning of the week.
● Interest rates for financial results and FRB
In the short term, it is possible for investors to be optimistic. High interest rates, high crude oil prices, inflation, and the Middle East situation and geopolitical risks continue. Highly volatile market developments are also expected until the end of the year.
→Since the unemployment rate is on a downward trend, if this does not resolve the trend, even if measures against inflation are implemented, it will not be considered a fundamental solution.
● The long-awaited intervention
・Finance Officer Masato Kanda
When the exchange rate falls sharply, the country stops capital outflow by raising interest rates, or counteracts excessive fluctuations with exchange rate intervention. →One guideline is the 150 yen line per dollar. The government, the Bank of Japan, dislikes rapid fluctuations, so it is strengthening its tone. In any case, I think there is a high possibility of intervention within a few days.
● Borrowing costs
Borrowing costs have increased due to rising interest rates. Housing inventories are limited, and lack of inventory boosts housing prices.
→The rise in interest rates has not only boosted borrowing costs for people thinking about buying a home, but has also led to a decrease in inventory. If inventory is insufficient, prices generally rise. The stratum of potential buyers is thin.
●Rice stock
The US stock exchange rate has risen. The battle between Israel and the Islamic organization Hamas was suppressed so that it would not erupt into the Middle East in general, and it was a tailwind. The S&P 500 stock price index rose more than 1%. →However, earnings forecasts for US companies have deteriorated, and there is a possibility that the slump will continue. The proportion of companies that revise their earnings forecasts upward has declined sharply.
● Breaking away from encryption
Bitcoin, which is a crypto asset that had grown rapidly by 10%, has shrunk its increase. → BlackRock announced that its application for a Bitcoin in-kind exchange-traded fund (ETF) is still under review by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Continuation ⬇️ from here
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