Bubble or Opportunity? A Delicate Moment for US Stocks

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Recently, US stocks have once again become a hot topic of discussion, with many speculating: Is the US stock market currently in an "ultimate" bubble? Let's delve into this.

In the history of US stocks, the deteriorating microstructure of the market was a precursor to the bursting of bubbles during the "Nifty Fifty" and "Dot-com Bubble" eras. When faith in "core assets" begins to waver in the market, even the once dominant giants have to face the harsh reality. Today, the concentration of the US stock market has reached historical highs, and the performance of tech leaders has become key to sustaining this trend.

While there are some similarities in the microstructure, this market cycle does not seem to be the "ultimate bubble" seen during the dot-com bubble of 2000. The rise in indices is far from what it was back then, and the valuation differentiation between tech and non-tech stocks has not reached extreme levels. Additionally, investor sentiment is far from the fervor of the past.

From a medium-term perspective, behind the burst of the dot-com bubble in 2000 was a significant slowdown in industry trends. Currently, the alignment of stock prices and performance in the US AI sector shows a more stable development trend. However, we still need to monitor the sustainability of AI performance to ensure the continuation of this trend.

At this delicate moment, how should investors seize opportunities and mitigate risks? We need to conduct in-depth analysis of companies' fundamentals and diversify investments, not putting all eggs in one basket.

Regardless, risks always exist—whether it's the possibility of the US economy slipping into a recession due to high interest rates, debt ceiling issues, geopolitical conflicts, and more, all of which could impact the market. Therefore, we must remain vigilant and manage risks effectively.