Concerns about the US market

What are the important points of the current stock exchange rate”Inflation has subsidedIt's”.

This is because once inflation has subsided, interest rates can be lowered, the economy will improve, and stock prices will rise.

Inflation, like deflation, is highly sticky, and it is not easy to calm it down.

In that sense, it can be said that it is currently difficult to determine whether stock prices will rise after adjustments or whether they will continue to fall.

Of the worldGDPIt's important to keep track of rankings.

1st: United States of America

2nd place: China

3rd place: Germany

4th place: Japan

5th: India

6th: England

Looking at this, while I think that China and India, which have large populations, have a large impact on the global economy, I am surprised that Germany, which has a population of 80 million people or less, and the United Kingdom, which has 70 million people or less, have influence.

The currentChina CPIIt was announced in 2022/10, peaked at 2.8%, and was announced in 2024/8 - it has remained positive after adding 0.8%, but it is weakly the data announced in July recently0.2%It is.

NextGerman CPIHowever, it fell from 10.4% announced in 2022/11 and announced in 2024/42.2%After putting it on, I'm reluctant to go down until now.

India CPIIt seems to be an emerging country, and turbulence has intensified. The most recent data released in July5.00%That's it. It has rebounded slightly from 5 consecutive months of decline and has continued to the present.

United Kingdom CPIThe data announced in November 2022 peaked at 11.1%, and the most recent data released in July2.0%It is.

What does this indicate other than the United StatesBoomThere is no country that is excited.

IndoIt can be said that the economic situation is good, but it is in the early stages of development, and it can be said that the risk is still high as an investment destination. Still, the outlook is bright.

Until now, while the global economy has been slowing down, the US economy has been doing well and stock prices have risen.

Britain's unemployment rate is risingwithGerman unemployment rate risesis starting to stand out.

Of developed countriesRising unemploymentIt also has an impact on the US economy.

Large stocksThis is because they are so dependent on overseas markets.

When overseas market conditions worsenLarge stocksSince sales fall, there is an increase in layoffs within the US, and there is a high risk that the unemployment rate will rise.

What is 70% of the US GDPDomestic demandThat's it. Domestic demand is also benefiting from Americans who earn money in overseas markets.

I earn money overseas and spend it within the US.

What is the rise in the unemployment rateControlling wage inflationSince it accelerates, there is a possibility that it will contribute to calming down inflation.

In a state where American consumers' desire to buy is decliningunemployment rateIf it accelerates, there is also a possibility that the unemployment rate will not drop even if interest rates are cut.

If this scenario were to happen in reality, stock prices would crash.

Basically, in an environment where consumption desire declines due to high prices

Rising unemployment

　　↓

Wages will drop

　　↓

Prices will drop

　　↓

The number of people shopping will increase

　　↓

The unemployment rate will be less likely to rise

　　↓

Prices won't drop

　　↓

Consumption desire declines

(back to top)

Repeat this several times.

How to achieve this cycleThe dollar appreciatesIt must be.

It's similar to the way inflation calms down and before the economy falls into recession, and both make it easier for the unemployment rate to rise.

It can be said that it is so difficult to make a decision.

The impact of thisGold futuresIt's showing up.

Despite the fact that US stocks are overpricedGold futuresHigh prices form a range market.

That's allThere are strong concerns about a recessionIt can be said that it is the market price.

Gold futuresThe market isn't always right.

Gold futuresIt shows that there is no denying the possibility that it will be lowered when the range is formed.

It can be said that it is a recommended phase to reduce positions, watch trends in economic indicators, and then move on to buying.