Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Announced at 23:00 on 2024/6/25Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexResults for the previous month 101.3100.4It was.

Albeit slightlyshrinksI did.

Because this will be material for interest rate cutsStock heightIt's a factor.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexA decrease in interest rates encourages interest rate cutsStock heightIt hasn't reached.

The reasonCPIThis is because it has not led to a decrease.

whyConsumer Confidence IndexWhen it decreasesStock heightWill it lead to?

This is because prices drop when consumers refrain from shopping and run to savings.

The currentCPIOKpremiums・Housing expenses・Service pricesIt has remained high.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexIt is flying at a low altitude, peaking at 128.9, which was announced on 2021/6/29.

Even in this stateCPIConsidering that it cannot even step into the 2% range, prices will continue to rise,Interest rate cutsIt is judged that it is far away.

What is the US economysoft landingSince we are starting to move towards it, it is natural that prices are unlikely to fall.

soft landingOKunemployment ratePrices are lowered while suppressing increases, so it takes time.

If you want to lower pricesPolicy interest rateIt's just a matter of raising it to 6% and 7%.unemployment rateIf you raise it, it's easyCPIIt will go down.

The reason I don't do it is because I have had bitter experiences in the past.

Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceIf it falls further in the future,Housing expensesis it going down?premiumsis it going down? This is becoming important.

inverselyHousing expensesIf it rises, I think stock prices will drop in earnest.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexIn a scene where it fallsCPIYaPCEThe level of attention will increase.

It was announced at the same timeS&P Case Shiller House Prices YoYThe rise stopped for 10 consecutive months and the result7.2%It was.

ThisStock heightIt's a factor.