Core PCE rising

The usa announced on September 27, 2024 at 21:30.Core PCEResult against the previous month's 2.6%2.7%It was.

However, it had been declining or stagnant since September 2023.Core PCEBut it rebounded for the first time in 1 year and 1 month since August 2023, revealing the stickiness of inflation.

This is.stock market declineThis is the factor.

The Federal Reserve has been bullish.lowering interest rates executed it.Core PCEIf the market reacts positively, there may be a possibility of strong employment.

Unemployment rateIf it falls,lowering interest rates there is no reason to do so. The stock marketlowering interest rates if there is no reason to buy, it will cause a decline in stock prices.

As I mentioned in a previous post,Unemployment rateControlling the toro is difficult, and it is necessary to cut interest rates considerably ahead of time.

Even if it means rekindling inflation.lowering interest rates It is clear from historical evidence that run is necessary.

It is necessary to pay more attention than before.Policy interest rateIt is necessary to pay attention to the gold trends.

Amidst the decline in crude oil futures.Copper futuresIt has been forming an uptrend since September 12th.

This is for the USA, which hopes for inflation to stabilize.there is headwind.It is.

Due to the global manufacturing sector becoming more active,Copper futuresis being bought.

If the global economy improves, the usa may see a rise.Unemployment rateIt is highly likely to decrease accordingly.

Unemployment rateIf the unemployment rate decreases and inflation reignites, rate cuts are not possible, leading to a slump in usa stocks.

It is conceivable that funds will shift to emerging market stocks.The outlook is good.

There is skepticism about how effective China's economic stimulus measures will be. Like Japan's struggle with deflation, it is worth noting if China can overcome deflation.

If China's economy were to recover, USA stocks would most likelyexperience a prolonged slump.

Once deflation sets in, there is a high possibility of the economy stagnating long term unless a miracle happens. Although there is a potential for a significant decline in USA stocks due to this temporary inflation, if it becomes clear that the Chinese economy is not improving, it could quickly shift towards a deflationary trend, leading to a scenario where USA stocks recover.