Countdown 1 day! Robotaxi is about to arrive, how will it affect tesla's stock price performance?
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Tesla will hold the highly anticipated Robotaxi conference in the USA on October 10, to unveil its long-delayed self-driving taxi. Musk has stated that this will go down in history and heavily promoted it as potentially the company's biggest event ever. Some have posted that this will be Tesla's most important moment since the introduction of the Model 3, to which Musk responded positively: yes.
The event originally scheduled for August 8 has been repeatedly postponed, heightening external anticipation. The delay announcement back then had a significant impact on Tesla's stock, demonstrating the market's high expectations for this event.
As investors, undoubtedly, what is most anticipated is what impact this conference will have on the stock price.
In fact, all major new product events by Tesla have led to significant stock price fluctuations.
Within 5 days of the Model 3 unveiling in March 2016, Tesla's stock price rose by 12%; after the humanoid robot Optimus was officially unveiled at AI Day in 2022, Tesla's stock price dropped by 16% in 5 days. On September 5, 2024, Musk announced the limited production of Optimus starting next year, causing the stock price to surge by over 4%.
However, looking at a longer timeline, within a year of new product events, Tesla's stock price generally experiences significant increases.
Based on the overnight options chain, both long and short parties are in a tense state. As of the expiration date of October 11 (which is after the October 10 conference), the Call transactions with exercise prices of $250 and $245 are leading, with 0.04 million and 0.037 million contracts respectively; similarly, on the same expiration date, the Put options with exercise prices of $240 and $242.5 are also heavily traded, with 0.024 million and 0.021 million contracts respectively.
Whether Tesla's stock price can rise depends on the visibility of when the positive contributions begin, and whether the innovative business model is easily understood and accepted by investors.
What is the market expecting?
Robotaxi Day appears to be an event launching autonomous driving technology, but in reality, Musk needs to convince investors during this event that Tesla is a "technology company" rather than an "auto manufacturer".
There are two main highlights of this presentation: first, Tesla's Robotaxi commercialization timeline, covering details on technological maturity, operations, and regulatory aspects; and second, Tesla may simultaneously unveil the low-cost Model 2 at 0.025 million USD, or announce more details.
Cybercab
One of the most important expectations for Tesla in this event is to see the prototype of its self-driving taxi (Robotaxi) on display. Musk previously stated that this vehicle may be named Cybercab.
According to spy photos posted on social media platforms, Tesla's Robotaxi may be a small two-door, two-seat vehicle, using the same elongated taillights as the Cybertruck, and may have functions such as automatic charging, disinfection, and fleet management. Based on previous reports, this model is expected to feature Tesla's latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology.
Regarding the deployment time for Robotaxi, Musk mentioned during Tesla's second-quarter earnings call this year, "It could be by the end of this year, at the latest next year."
The market expects that in order to drive the commercialization process of Robotaxi, Tesla might announce a partnership with Uber. Additionally, Tesla may collaborate with McDonald's to use Robotaxi for food delivery. This is based on a post by McDonald's last week stating, "Chats will start on 10.10." Musk responded with a crying laughing emoji.
What is the market expecting?
Robotaxi Day appears to be an event launching autonomous driving technology, but in reality, Musk needs to convince investors during this event that Tesla is a "technology company" rather than an "auto manufacturer".
There are two main highlights of this presentation: first, Tesla's Robotaxi commercialization timeline, covering details on technological maturity, operations, and regulatory aspects; and second, Tesla may simultaneously unveil the low-cost Model 2 at 0.025 million USD, or announce more details.
Cybercab
One of the most important expectations for Tesla in this event is to see the prototype of its self-driving taxi (Robotaxi) on display. Musk previously stated that this vehicle may be named Cybercab.
According to spy photos posted on social media platforms, Tesla's Robotaxi may be a small two-door, two-seat vehicle, using the same elongated taillights as the Cybertruck, and may have functions such as automatic charging, disinfection, and fleet management. Based on previous reports, this model is expected to feature Tesla's latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology.
Regarding the deployment time for Robotaxi, Musk mentioned during Tesla's second-quarter earnings call this year, "It could be by the end of this year, at the latest next year."
The market expects that in order to drive the commercialization process of Robotaxi, Tesla might announce a partnership with Uber. Additionally, Tesla may collaborate with McDonald's to use Robotaxi for food delivery. This is based on a post by McDonald's last week stating, "Chats will start on 10.10." Musk responded with a crying laughing emoji.
It is worth noting that the market believes that relying solely on technological demonstrations is not enough to dispel market doubts. Tesla also needs to clearly elaborate on its commercialization strategy for self-driving rental cars to eliminate investors' concerns about long-term profitability.
Optimus
The market generally believes that the official theme of Robotaxi Day is 'We, Robot,' indicating that there may also be the latest news on Tesla's humanoid robot project. People are now looking forward to seeing the latest progress of Optimus, especially its application scenarios and technological performance, at the upcoming event.
Model 2
In addition to Robotaxi itself, investors are also concerned whether Tesla will introduce a more affordable new model Model 2 at this event.
The affordable version of Model 2 (starting price below 0.03 million US dollars) is expected to expand Tesla's potential market, while Tesla's sales have shown a weak trend lately.
How does Wall Street view this?
Morgan Stanley, a major Wall Street firm with the title of 'Tesla super bull,' is bullish on Tesla due to Tesla's Robotaxi revenue potential and the substantial subscription revenue that FSD may bring. Recently, Morgan Stanley reiterated its 'shareholding' rating for Tesla, with a target price of as high as $310 within 12 months, ranking it as the highest target price on Wall Street.
It is worth noting that the company previously stated that the launch of Robotaxi symbolizes Tesla's business model shifting towards hardcore AI and robot technology. Morgan Stanley also predicts that by 2030, Tesla's revenue from the mobility sector will reach $17 billion.
It is worth noting that Deutsche Bank, which has been bearish on Tesla's stock price trend in the long term, has rarely released a research report on Tesla's stock price. The bank has reinstated a 'buy' rating on Tesla and listed it as the top stock in the automotive industry, compared to its previous 'neutral' and 'shareholding reduce' ratings. The bank also announced the resumption of Tesla's target price tracking, giving Tesla a target price as high as $295 within the next 12 months.
Known as the 'Number One Fan of Tesla,' Cathie Wood believes Tesla's market cap could exceed $8 trillion. Ark Investment Management, led by 'Wood Sister,' recently updated its target price for Tesla, with Ark forecasting that Tesla's stock price could reach $2,600 by 2029. Ark's strong bullish view on Tesla's stock price is mainly based on the expectation that by 2029, nearly 90% of Tesla's market cap and profits will be attributed to the Robotaxi unmanned taxi network built on an incredibly powerful AI supercomputing system.
Barron's author Al Root wrote that Tesla will either regain its position as one of the seven giants of the US stock market or fall into becoming an average auto manufacturer, competing with dozens of brands for market share in electric vehicles. It all depends on October 10th.
Some believe that the success of the Robotaxi Day event largely depends on Musk.
Optimus
The market generally believes that the official theme of Robotaxi Day is 'We, Robot,' indicating that there may also be the latest news on Tesla's humanoid robot project. People are now looking forward to seeing the latest progress of Optimus, especially its application scenarios and technological performance, at the upcoming event.
Model 2
In addition to Robotaxi itself, investors are also concerned whether Tesla will introduce a more affordable new model Model 2 at this event.
The affordable version of Model 2 (starting price below 0.03 million US dollars) is expected to expand Tesla's potential market, while Tesla's sales have shown a weak trend lately.
How does Wall Street view this?
Morgan Stanley, a major Wall Street firm with the title of 'Tesla super bull,' is bullish on Tesla due to Tesla's Robotaxi revenue potential and the substantial subscription revenue that FSD may bring. Recently, Morgan Stanley reiterated its 'shareholding' rating for Tesla, with a target price of as high as $310 within 12 months, ranking it as the highest target price on Wall Street.
It is worth noting that the company previously stated that the launch of Robotaxi symbolizes Tesla's business model shifting towards hardcore AI and robot technology. Morgan Stanley also predicts that by 2030, Tesla's revenue from the mobility sector will reach $17 billion.
It is worth noting that Deutsche Bank, which has been bearish on Tesla's stock price trend in the long term, has rarely released a research report on Tesla's stock price. The bank has reinstated a 'buy' rating on Tesla and listed it as the top stock in the automotive industry, compared to its previous 'neutral' and 'shareholding reduce' ratings. The bank also announced the resumption of Tesla's target price tracking, giving Tesla a target price as high as $295 within the next 12 months.
Known as the 'Number One Fan of Tesla,' Cathie Wood believes Tesla's market cap could exceed $8 trillion. Ark Investment Management, led by 'Wood Sister,' recently updated its target price for Tesla, with Ark forecasting that Tesla's stock price could reach $2,600 by 2029. Ark's strong bullish view on Tesla's stock price is mainly based on the expectation that by 2029, nearly 90% of Tesla's market cap and profits will be attributed to the Robotaxi unmanned taxi network built on an incredibly powerful AI supercomputing system.
Barron's author Al Root wrote that Tesla will either regain its position as one of the seven giants of the US stock market or fall into becoming an average auto manufacturer, competing with dozens of brands for market share in electric vehicles. It all depends on October 10th.
Some believe that the success of the Robotaxi Day event largely depends on Musk.
Tesla bears believe that Musk is diverting investors' attention, diverting attention away from the company's more significant issues such as declining sales, intensifying competition, and decreasing profitability of electric vehicles.
Furthermore, investors need to be cautious as since October, several Tesla executives have announced their departure, including four directly under Musk.
The market widely believes that Robotaxi Day is not only a technical showdown but also an important declaration for Tesla in terms of market positioning, innovation capabilities, and future development strategies. If this opportunity can be successfully seized, Tesla is expected to consolidate its leading position in the global travel sector; otherwise, it may face greater market skepticism.
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