December is dangerous for the dollar, with fluctuations due to Trump's posts and interest rate decisions.

December 2, 2024, 13:09 JST (excerpt)
In 8 out of the last 10 years, the dollar has weakened in December due to rebalancing and risk appetite.
Since Donald Trump's election victory on November 5, exchange rate volatility has increased.
Dollar bulls are gaining momentum following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, but historically December has been an unfavorable month for the dollar.
Since the election on November 5, the dollar has risen by about 2%, but seasonally it is highly likely to become unfavorable from here onwards. In 8 out of the last 10 years, the dollar has declined in December. In many cases, this was due to portfolio rebalancing flows and movements to sell the dollar driven by risk appetite such as the so-called 'Santa rally'.

This year, there is a high potential for significantly and rapidly increased volatility than usual. This is due to Trump's future U.S. presidential social media posts potentially unsettling the market and traders, as well as the scheduled policy decisions of the major 9 central banks and the release of a large amount of important economic data. Just the whiff of a negative surprise could lead to a rush to the ultimate safe-haven currency, eliminating the scenario of 'selling the dollar'.
Vishnu Varathan, Chief Economist and Strategist at Mizuho Bank, based in Singapore, said, "It's better to hold on tight." He mentioned that in December, there is usually a movement to sell the dollar due to risk appetite, but with Trump taking office, the outcome is uncertain.