Detailed analysis of the rebound in the US stock market and the dollar and yen
✔️ US Stock Market
President Biden's withdrawal from the election campaign was accepted, and expectations for the financial season for high-tech companies increased, and there was a backlash. The S&P 500 stock index rose 1.08%. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.58%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.32%.
✔️ Market outlook
On Wall Street, while concerns about summer adjustments are raised, about two-thirds of respondents to the Bloomberg “Markets Live (MLIV)” survey anticipate that financial results will boost US stocks. Settlement of Tesla and Alphabet is ahead, and there is a possibility that this will have a major impact on the direction of the market.
✔️ Political Implications
The market reaction to President Biden's withdrawal from the election campaign and Vice President Harris's expression of support was slow, and the dollar and government bonds were minor. Political turmoil will not drastically change the direction of the market price, and I think economic growth will determine the final direction.
✔️ The bond market
US bond yields rose slightly. The 30-year bond yield is 4.47%. The 10-year bond yield is 4.25%. The 2-year bond yield is 4.52%. Short-term bonds have been bought from observations that interest rate cuts will be implemented in September, and interest rate differences with long-term bonds have narrowed.
✔️ Foreign exchange market
The dollar has mixed movements. While resource-rich country currencies weakened, yen remained strong. The yen exchange rate against the dollar rose to 1 dollar = 156 yen 29 yen during the Japan-Europe trading hours, and moved in the first half of the 157 yen range in New York time.
✔️ Detailed analysis of the dollar to yen
The dollar-yen exchange rate temporarily rose to 156 yen 29 yen in response to the news that President Biden was withdrawing from the election campaign, but since then it has remained in the first half of the 157 yen range.
✔️ Economic indicators and the impact of monetary policy
Economic indicators such as the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index to be announced this week are attracting attention. Depending on these results, there is a possibility that the dollar yen exchange rate will be greatly affected. Also, since short-term bond yields have risen and interest rate differences with long-term bonds have narrowed, observations are intensifying that interest rate cuts will be implemented in September.
✔️ The impact of Japan's monetary policy
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy also has an impact on yen exchange rates. Currently, the BOJ is expected to continue its mitigation policy, but there is a possibility of policy changes depending on domestic economic indicators and government trends, so caution is necessary.
✔️ Conclusions
The dollar-yen exchange rate is affected by multiple factors, such as US economic indicators and monetary policy, Japan's economic conditions and monetary policies, and US political risks. In the short term, there is a high possibility that the dollar-yen exchange rate will fluctuate depending on the results of the US economic indicators, and the PCE price index is attracting particular attention. In the long run, the results of the US presidential election and BOJ policy changes will have a major impact. It is important to keep a close eye on the trend of the dollar and yen while considering these factors.
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