“Detailed analysis of the Tokyo Market” understood in 1 minute
1. Chairman Powell's Remarks and Their Implications
Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve stated at the Jackson Hole meeting that “the time has come to adjust monetary policy,” and suggested a rate cut in September.
This statement shows the Federal Reserve's intention to aim for a soft landing in the economy after the peak of measures against inflation has passed.
This suggestion of interest rate cuts triggered the following market reaction.
・American stock market
Stock prices have risen.
This is because borrowing costs have declined due to interest rate cuts, and expectations that corporate profits will improve have increased.
・Exchange market
Dollars were sold in anticipation of interest rate cuts, and yen appreciation progressed.
The yen exchange rate has reached the first half of the $1 = 144 yen range.
2. Governor Ueda's remarks and their impact
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stated in the closing examination of the Diet that he would consider further interest rate increases after determining the state of the economy and prices while admitting that financial markets are still unstable.
This statement has had the following effects.
・Interest rate policy outlook
Since the Bank of Japan suggests further interest rate increases, there is a possibility that upward pressure on long-term interest rates will be applied.
However, whether or not interest rate increases will actually take place depends on trends in the economy and prices, and uncertainty remains high.
3. The correlation between the Japanese and US markets and its impact on the Tokyo market
Complicated effects are expected on the Tokyo market at the beginning of the week in response to the remarks made by Chairman Powell and President Ueda this time.
・Stock price
While the appreciation of American stocks will have a positive impact on the Tokyo market, there is a possibility that the appreciation of the yen will have a negative impact on the performance of export-related companies.
As a result, stock prices develop a mix of rising and falling factors.
・Exchange
The appreciation of the yen is negative for some export companies, but conversely, there is an advantage of cost reduction for importers and domestic demand companies.
Therefore, different impacts are expected on corporate performance and sector by sector.
・Investor sentiment
While expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States act as factors in stock appreciation, the appreciation of the yen and the uncertain monetary policy of the Bank of Japan remain unsettling in the market.
Therefore, investor sentiment tends to fluctuate, and there is a possibility that transactions will temporarily become unstable.
4. Conclusions and future prospects
An unstable development is expected in the Tokyo market at the beginning of the week as the tug-of-war between US stocks and the appreciation of the yen continues.
Market participants will continue to respond sensitively to new information on exchange rate trends and Japan-US monetary policies.
In particular, future economic indicators and statements made by central bank officials are important factors influencing market trends.
*Technical analysis is performed live.
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